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New Data Sources Bring New Inspiration
New Data Sources Bring New Inspiration
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you'll likely hear more about in the coming months is Revelio Labs, a company using data aggregation and modeling to synthesize it's own version of nonfarm payrolls. While it's far from an exact match, the trends are similar, and Revelio's data is less volatile (much like ADP always has been). All that to say, there's no great way to justify this morning's rally in bonds without the Revelio release at 8:30am ET, which showed a decline in monthly job creation.
Fairly sharp rally at 8:20am CME open with more buying as stocks sell off. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.097
Straightforward Selling Pressure
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 06 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Oct Challenger layoffs (k) | Oct | 153.074K | 54.064K | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Aug | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Sep | |||
| 11:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 3:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 4:30PM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| 5:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| Friday, Nov 07 | |||||
| 3:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:00AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Sep | 50K | 22K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Participation Rate | Sep | 62.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Unemployment rate mm (%) | Sep | 4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Average earnings mm (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Average earnings mm (%) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Participation Rate | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Unemployment rate mm (%) | Oct | |||
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Nov | 4.6% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov U Mich conditions | Nov | 59.2 | 58.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Nov | 3.9% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Nov | 53.2 | 53.6 | |
| 11:00AM | Oct Consumer Inflation Expectations | Oct | 3.4% | ||
| 3:00PM | Sep Consumer credit (bl) | Sep | $10B | $0.36B | |
| 3:00PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
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