Uneventful Friday Ahead of Holiday-Shortened Week

Uneventful Friday Ahead of Holiday-Shortened Week

Bonds held their ground on Friday, but required some help from weaker economic data to do so. Compared to the past 2 sessions, volatility was much lower and losses may not have been too severe, even without the data. Taken together, the past 3 days illustrate just how desperate the market is for actionable econ data. The incoming week is once again sparse in that regard. It will also be punctuated by a rare mid-week holiday on Tuesday. One side effect of that holiday is that it pushes the 3yr Treasury auction forward to Monday--something that may have added slightly to the early selling in bonds today.

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Uneventful Friday Ahead of Holiday-Shortened Week

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.51 -0.02 10YR 4.101% +0.016% 11/7/2025 5:00PM EST
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as stock losses helped arrest the selling pressure. Then at 10am ET, weaker Consumer Sentiment data (with a record low in current conditions) helped completely erase the selling.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.32% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.82% +0.00% 11/7/2025
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months.  This followed stronger economic data on that same morning. Rates moved back down yesterday after separate econ data told a different story. Now on Friday, it's a mixed bag. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker to start the day, and that meant rates started out modestly higher. But the last economic data of the week showed lower-than-expected c...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Nov 07
3:00AM Fed Williams Speech
7:00AM Fed Jefferson Speech
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Nov 4.7% 4.6%
10:00AM Nov U Mich conditions Nov 52.3 59.2 58.6
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Nov 3.6% 3.9%
10:00AM Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) Nov 50.3 53.2 53.6
11:00AM Oct Consumer Inflation Expectations Oct 3.2% 3.4%
3:00PM Sep Consumer credit (bl) Sep $13.09B $10B $0.36B
3:00PM Fed Miran Speech
Monday, Nov 10
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
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Rates are dictated by bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. But during the shutdown, the most important data has been on hold. This week brought a rare concentration of non-government data to help bridge the gap and bonds were more than willing to respond. Almost all the volatility transpired on Wednesday and Thursday surrounding a few key reports. Wednesday's ADP employment was first u... READ MORE