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Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
Viewed in a vacuum, this mornings 7-8am rally remains enigmatic. There was some small case to be made that stock losses played a role, but the bond buying definitely didn't line up with stocks in a normal way (i.e. it looked like there was some third variable that caused the bond rally to play out in a much more concentrated way). But as the day progressed, we saw stronger evidence of correlation between stock prices and bond yields. Specifically, a sharp rebound in stocks at the 9:30am NYSE open coincided with an equally sharp reversal in bonds. Yields ultimately leveled off 2.5-3bps higher on the day with MBS spending the afternoon in just barely weaker territory.
Initially weaker overnight, but now stronger after a big rally at 7am-730am. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.067
giving up most of the AM gains. 10yr down less than half a bp at 4.112. MBS still up 3 ticks (.09) but down 5 ticks (.16) from AM highs.
New lows. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.142
Heading out near weakest levels. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 3bps at 4.145
Gains Completely Erased. Stocks Looking More Culpable
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Nov 14 | |||||
| 10:05AM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| 2:30PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 3:20PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| Monday, Nov 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Nov NY Fed Manufacturing | Nov | 6.1 | 10.70 | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | Oct Federal budget,(on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Oct | $50B | $198B | |
| 1:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 3:35PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 7:55PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
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