Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks

Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks

The stock market factored into the bond market's performance on Friday.  In pre-market trading stocks managed a big bounce after NY Fed's Williams spoke favorably about December's rate cut potential. Bonds benefited from that comment initially, but the stock rally quickly forced bonds to find a floor for the day. From then on, stocks continued putting upward pressure on rates, but the net effect was that bonds simply held sideways whereas they might have otherwise continued to rally.

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Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.50 +0.17 10YR 4.064% -0.020% 11/21/2025 5:59PM EST
Bonds have been giving up gains in concert with a big bounce in stocks. 10yr yields are now unchanged at 4.085--the highest levels of the day. MBS are also at lows.  Despite being modestly stronger on the day, prices are down an eighth of a point from AM highs. As such, the jumpier lenders could be considering negative reprices.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.34% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.82% -0.03% 11/21/2025
Recent stock market losses have gotten a lot attention in the news recently. While there's no reliable correlation between stocks and interest rates , when stock losses are as big as they have been recently, it increases the tendency for rates to move in the same direction.  That was definitely the case today. Bonds (which dictate rates) improved overnight as stocks sank further. But as early as 7am, a reversal began to take shape. The catalyst was a comment from NY F...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 24
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
Tuesday, Nov 25
8:30AM Sep Core Producer Prices MM (%) Sep -0.1%
9:00AM Sep CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Sep -0.6%
9:00AM Sep Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Sep 1.6%
9:00AM Sep FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Sep 0.4%
9:00AM Sep FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Sep 2.3%
10:00AM Aug Business Inventories (% ) Aug 0.1% 0.2%
10:00AM Nov CB Consumer Confidence (%) Nov 93.3 94.6
10:00AM Oct Pending Home Sales (%) Oct 0.0%
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
1:00PM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.190%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
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This week marked the return of delayed economic data from the government shutdown. Specifically, we received the important jobs report that was set to come out in early October. While this is September's data, and thus a bit stale, it was nonetheless responsible for the biggest volume spike in the bond market since the last Fed meeting. Such is the power of the jobs report relative to other econom... READ MORE