Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
If the only metric from this morning's jobs report was the uptick in unemployment from 4.4 to 4.6%, and if that was the last of this week's big ticket econ data, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a more aggressive rate rally. As it stands, unemployment was tempered by a higher participation rate and less dire unrounded numbers (taken together, these actually made unemployment closer to unchanged). Add in stronger payroll growth, a surge in core retail sales, and the need to wait and see how Thursday's CPI comes out, and the choppy, lackluster rally is easier to reconcile.
Modestly stronger after jobs report. MBS up almost an eighth and 10yr down 1.1bps at 4.165
Paradoxically modestly weaker now with MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.191
Back near best levels of the day. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.156
Leveling off at only modestly stronger levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr still down 2.1 ticks at 4.156
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Dec 16 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16.25K | 4.75K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Participation Rate | Nov | 62.5% | 62.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Average earnings mm (%) | Oct | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Average earnings mm (%) | Nov | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales (%) | Oct | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Oct | 0.8% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Oct | -105K | 51K | 119K |
| 8:30AM | Nov Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Nov | 64K | 50K | -105K |
| 8:30AM | Nov Unemployment rate mm (%) | Nov | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Composite PMI | Dec | 53.0 | 54.2 | |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Dec | 51.8 | 52 | 52.2 |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Services PMI | Dec | 52.9 | 54 | 54.1 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Business Inventories (% ) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 7:00PM | International Monetary Market (IMM) Date (%) | ||||
| Wednesday, Dec 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/12 | 181.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Refi Index | Dec/12 | 1190.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/12 | 327.9 | ||
| 8:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:05AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Dec/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/12 | -2.4M | -1.812M | |
| 12:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
