Broker Owner
Ingram Company
License:
CA DRE: 01226769
NMLS: 371141 / 358879

Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI

Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI

Wednesday ended up being an uneventful trading day with bonds mostly sideways and well within the recent trading range. This isn't hard to believe given the absence of any relevant market movers. Thursday could be different thanks to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of those reports that has occasionally swung for the fences, but that can also have almost no impact. The present example could receive a bit more focus than normal as it will be the first time we've seen this data since October 24th. In addition, recent Fed speeches have reintroduced inflation concerns as a reason to be patient when it comes to additional rate cuts. None of this guarantees fireworks, but at the very least, it's the last potential source of fireworks this year as far as econ data is concerned. 

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Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.71 +0.20 10YR 4.119% -0.040% 12/18/2025 11:59AM EST
Bonds staged a decent recovery heading into the 11am hour, but they've been selling somewhat steadily since then.  While the selling seems to have leveled off for now, it leaves 5.0 MBS teetering on the edge of an eighth of a point of weakness vs the 11am highs.  Most lenders publish rate sheets more than an hour before that and MBS were lower at that time.  In other words, compared to rate sheet print times, we're only down about 2 ticks (.06). As such, we'...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.22% -0.05% 15YR Fixed 5.74% -0.02% 12/18/2025
Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday's levels for the average lender. This wasn't a huge surprise considering the absence of any high stakes economic data, but tomorrow could be a different story. Rates are driven by bonds and the economy is one of the primary sources of motivation for the bond market. In general, the two reports that get more of the bond market's attention than any others are the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).&nbs...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Dec 18
8:30AM Dec Philly Fed Prices Paid Dec 43.60 56.10
8:30AM Nov y/y Headline CPI (%) Nov 2.7% 3.1% 3.0%
8:30AM Dec/13 Jobless Claims (k) Dec/13 224K 225K 236K
8:30AM Dec/06 Continued Claims (k) Dec/06 1897K 1930K 1838K
8:30AM Dec Philly Fed Business Index Dec -10.2 3 -1.7
8:30AM Nov y/y CORE CPI (%) Nov 2.6% 3% 3.0%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 24
Friday, Dec 19
10:00AM Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Dec 3.2% 3.4%
10:00AM Dec U Mich conditions Dec 50.7 51.1
10:00AM Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) Dec 53.4 51.0
10:00AM Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Dec 4.1% 4.5%
10:00AM Nov Exist. home sales % chg (%) Nov 1.2%
10:00AM Nov Existing home sales (ml) Nov 4.2M 4.1M
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Friends don't let friends believe the myth that Fed rate cuts result in lower mortgage rates. If you'd rather not immerse yourself in the "why," here is a solid "what:" This isn't an anomaly. The Fed Funds Rate governs loans that last less than 24 hours whereas a mortgage can last 30 years.  Loans of different durations frequently see their interest rates walk vastly different path... READ MORE
Broker Owner
Ingram Company
License:
CA DRE: 01226769
NMLS: 371141 / 358879