Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was minimal and not visibly tied to any other motivation. And as we already discussed this morning, Japan's rate hike was a non-event. Holiday trading randomness will get worse over the next 2 weeks before it improves in early January.
Sideways at modestly weaker levels. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.143
Decent recovery into 11am, but fading a bit now. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 01yr up 2.7bps at 4.148
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Dec 19 | |||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.165 million | |||
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Dec | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| 10:00AM | Dec U Mich conditions | Dec | 50.4 | 50.7 | 51.1 |
| 10:00AM | Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Dec | 52.9 | 53.4 | 51.0 |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Dec | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% |
| 10:00AM | Nov Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Nov | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Existing home sales (ml) | Nov | 4.13M | 4.2M | 4.1M |
| Monday, Dec 22 | |||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $6.801 million | |||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
