Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction

Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction

You know it's a holiday with an early closure if we're talking about a 7yr Treasury auction having an impact on the bond market. To be fair, 7s have had an impact once or twice in the past, but the bar is certainly high. The holiday calendar makes the bar a bit lower as fewer determined traders are required to move the whole pile. Such was the case after the 11:30am ET auction. Bonds were already in good shape before that, but the earlier gains were more incidental than data-driven.

Market Movement Recap
08:31 AM

Unchanged overnight and no reaction to claims data.  MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1/10th of a bp at 4.165

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Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.81 +0.18 10YR 4.135% -0.032% 12/24/2025 1:49PM EST
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on the same schedule as always. Incidentally, that's an early close (2pm ET) on the 24th and a full close on the 25th. This assumes both are weekdays. Official holiday trading hour recommendations are published by SIFMA .  Trading is off to an uneventful start with a robotically sideways overnight session and no reaction to Jo...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.21% -0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.74% -0.01% 12/24/2025
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates , but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bit of random volatility without any obvious justification. When volume and participation are low, bonds can move a bit more than they otherwise might. All that to say today's improvement was luck of the draw, but we won't object to the result. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since November 25th. ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Dec 24
7:00AM Dec/19 MBA Purchase Index Dec/19 169.9 176.5
7:00AM Dec/19 Mortgage Market Index Dec/19 299.8 315.6
7:00AM Dec/19 MBA Refi Index Dec/19 1084.3 1148.3
8:30AM Dec/13 Continued Claims (k) Dec/13 1923K 1897K
8:30AM Dec/20 Jobless Claims (k) Dec/20 214K 223K 224K
11:30AM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
2:00PM Christmas Eve
Thursday, Dec 25
12:00AM Christmas Day
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The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE