Volume is Back. Still Waiting on Volatility
Volume is Back. Still Waiting on Volatility
A range trading theme has dominated the bond market since the most recent high yield on December 10th and the most recent low the following day. 100% of trading since then has fallen inside those boundaries (4.10-4.20% in terms of 10yr yields). Even though volume has made a resounding post-holiday return, there's little for market watchers to do until we see a breakout. Wednesday and Friday's econ data continue to be the best bets as far as catalysts go.
Bonds Improve Back to Pre-Holiday Levels
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jan 06 | |||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.165 million | |||
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Services PMI | Dec | 52.5 | 52.9 | 54.1 |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Composite PMI | Dec | 52.7 | 53.0 | 54.2 |
| Wednesday, Jan 07 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/26 | 269.9 | 299.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/26 | 169.8 | 169.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 MBA Refi Index | Dec/26 | 872.1 | 1084.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 MBA Refi Index | Jan/02 | 937 | 872.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/02 | 159.3 | 169.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/02 | 270.8 | 269.9 | |
| 8:15AM | Dec ADP jobs (k) | Dec | 41K | 47K | -32K |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory orders mm (%) | Oct | -1.3% | -1.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Biz Activity | Dec | 56.0 | 54.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Prices | Dec | 64.3 | 65.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services New Orders | Dec | 57.9 | 52.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Employment | Dec | 52.0 | 48.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Nov | 3.161M | 2.941M | |
| 10:00AM | Nov USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Nov | 7.146M | 7.60M | 7.670M |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM N-Mfg PMI | Dec | 54.4 | 52.3 | 52.6 |
| 10:30AM | Jan/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/02 | -3.831M | 1.1M | -1.934M |
