Roland Wilcox
Owner / Loan Officer
Sierra Capital Mortgage Co.
License:
245214

Ending Near Unchanged Levels After Early Head Fake

Ending Near Unchanged Levels After Early Head Fake

Trading volumes confirm that bonds are 100% back in action, but after this morning's selling pressure proved to be a head fake, that volume hasn't translated to any meaningful momentum.  This isn't too hard to accept considering the absence of big-ticket econ data. Things change on Wednesday with the release of ADP, JOLTS, and ISM. This is our first chance to see some actual data-driven volatility in several weeks.

Latest Video Analysis

Flat Ending After Early Head Fake

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.84 +0.06 10YR 4.150% -0.015% 1/7/2026 5:00PM EST
Bonds have been selling a bit quicker in the past hour as Trump talks about increased defense spending (Treasury issuance implications). 10yr yields are still in the range, but up 2.7bps at 4.19. MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and an eighth of a point from many lenders' rate sheet print times. Jumpier lenders could be considering reprices.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.19% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.73% -0.01% 1/7/2026
Mortgage rates have been effectively unchanged for 5 straight days now. During that time, the MND 30yr fixed rate index hasn't moved by more than 0.01%. The average borrower would see almost exactly the same terms on any of these days. The absence of volatility isn't much of a surprise given the time of year and the lack of important economic data. But that changes tomorrow with the release of two labor market reports and ISM's service sector report. Individually, none o...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jan 06
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $8.165 million
9:45AM Dec S&P Global Services PMI Dec 52.5 52.9 54.1
9:45AM Dec S&P Global Composite PMI Dec 52.7 53.0 54.2
Wednesday, Jan 07
7:00AM Dec/26 Mortgage Market Index Dec/26 269.9 299.8
7:00AM Dec/26 MBA Purchase Index Dec/26 169.8 169.9
7:00AM Dec/26 MBA Refi Index Dec/26 872.1 1084.3
7:00AM Jan/02 MBA Refi Index Jan/02 937 872.1
7:00AM Jan/02 MBA Purchase Index Jan/02 159.3 169.8
7:00AM Jan/02 Mortgage Market Index Jan/02 270.8 269.9
8:15AM Dec ADP jobs (k) Dec 41K 47K -32K
10:00AM Oct Factory orders mm (%) Oct -1.3% -1.2% 0.2%
10:00AM Dec ISM Biz Activity Dec 56.0 54.5
10:00AM Dec ISM Services Prices Dec 64.3 65.4
10:00AM Dec ISM Services New Orders Dec 57.9 52.9
10:00AM Dec ISM Services Employment Dec 52.0 48.9
10:00AM Nov JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Nov 3.161M 2.941M
10:00AM Nov USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Nov 7.146M 7.60M 7.670M
10:00AM Dec ISM N-Mfg PMI Dec 54.4 52.3 52.6
10:30AM Jan/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jan/02 -3.831M 1.1M -1.934M
Read My Latest Newsletter
The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE
Roland Wilcox
Owner / Loan Officer
Sierra Capital Mortgage Co.
License:
245214