AM Resilience After Overnight Weakness
AM Resilience After Overnight Weakness
Most nights, Treasuries trade in fairly low volume in a fairly narrow range. Last night's range wasn't much wider than normal, but most of the movement happened all at once. It was also accompanied by much higher volume than normal. These are surefire signs of the market reacting to data or news. In the current case, that news involved Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to Treasuries. This sounds more meaningful than it is, and domestic traders agreed when the trading day officially began at 8:20am ET.
Modestly weaker overnight but mostly erased at 8:20am. 10yr up half a bp at 4.218 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Feb 09 | |||||
| 11:00AM | Jan Consumer Inflation Expectations | Jan | 3.1% | 3.4% | |
| 1:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 2:30PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 3:15PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 5:00PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| Tuesday, Feb 10 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Jan NFIB Business Optimism Index | Jan | 99.9 | 99.5 | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 7.75K | |||
| 8:30AM | Dec Import prices mm (%) | Dec | 0.2% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Employment costs (%) | Q4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.304 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Nov Business Inventories (% ) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.640% | |||
| 12:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
