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Limited Data, Fed Minutes, And Obvious Technicals
Limited Data, Fed Minutes, And Obvious Technicals
Any time the 10yr Treasury yield approaches--but fails to break--a number ending in .50 or .00, the analytical community is guaranteed to be discussing the technical significance of those levels. In the big picture, technical bounces can be anywhere remotely close to the big round numbers. As such, we are arguably once again seeing resistance at 4.00%. But does it matter? Arguably not. It's been resistance frequently since September in addition to being one of the most frequent pivot points since late 2022. Today's econ data wasn't up to the task of prompting a break. The same will likely be true of the afternoon's Fed Minutes. Absent new bullish motivations, it makes sense for yields to remain range-bound.
Roughly unchanged overnight and no major reaction to 830am data. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.064
Slightly weaker after 20yr auction. 10yr yields up 2.2bps at 4.082. MBS unchanged after being up 3 ticks (.09).
zero reaction to Fed Minutes. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 2bps at 4.081
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 18 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/13 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/13 | 157.1 | 161.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/13 MBA Refi Index | Feb/13 | 1375.9 | 1284.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/13 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/13 | 339.0 | 329.9 | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Housing starts number mm (ml) | Dec | 1.404M | 1.33M | 1.322M |
| 8:30AM | Dec Durable goods (%) | Dec | -1.4% | -2% | 5.3% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core CapEx (%) | Dec | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 9:15AM | Jan Industrial Production (%) | Jan | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 16 | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 19 | |||||
| 8:20AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Trade Gap (bl) | Dec | $-56B | $-56.8B | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Prices Paid | Feb | 46.90 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb/07 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/07 | 1862K | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 225K | 227K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Business Index | Feb | 9.3 | 12.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jan | |||
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Dec | -0.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan Pending Home Sales (%) | Jan | 2.6% | -9.3% | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/13 | 2.3M | 8.53M | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 9 | |||
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