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Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Don't call it a correction. Yields may have rallied 30bps in just over a week and apparently bounced almost perfectly at 4% (10yr), but they haven't exactly done much over the past 2 days. It's just as fair to say things are "sideways and waiting for guidance," but the cautious approach is to respect the almost-too-obvious technical patterns in play since July. Specifically, bonds have rallied 25-30bps and then consolidated toward slightly higher levels on multiple occasions. This could be the beginning of another similar pattern, but anything is possible if data is gloomy over the next 2 days (especially Friday). Today's data was modestly unfriendly with core durable goods at 0.6 vs 0.4 and a lackluster 20yr bond auction (not typically a market mover, but added some pressure today).
Roughly unchanged overnight and no major reaction to 830am data. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.064
Slightly weaker after 20yr auction. 10yr yields up 2.2bps at 4.082. MBS unchanged after being up 3 ticks (.09).
zero reaction to Fed Minutes. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 2bps at 4.081
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 18 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/13 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/13 | 157.1 | 161.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/13 MBA Refi Index | Feb/13 | 1375.9 | 1284.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/13 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/13 | 339.0 | 329.9 | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Housing starts number mm (ml) | Dec | 1.404M | 1.33M | 1.322M |
| 8:30AM | Dec Building Permits (ml) | Dec | 1.448M | 1.40M | 1.388M |
| 8:30AM | Dec Durable goods (%) | Dec | -1.4% | -2% | 5.3% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core CapEx (%) | Dec | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 9:15AM | Jan Industrial Production (%) | Jan | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 16 | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 19 | |||||
| 8:20AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Trade Gap (bl) | Dec | $-56B | $-56.8B | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Prices Paid | Feb | 46.90 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb/07 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/07 | 1862K | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 225K | 227K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Business Index | Feb | 9.3 | 12.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jan | |||
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Dec | -0.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan Pending Home Sales (%) | Jan | 2.6% | -9.3% | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/13 | 2.3M | 8.53M | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 9 | |||
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