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Accidental Clairvoyance (Not Really...)
Accidental Clairvoyance (Not Really...)
Yesterday's end-of-day recap bore the title "Half-Hearted Correction Continues." It turns out that should have been the title for this morning's commentary as it's a better description of this morning's trading (yesterday, we actually had a few fundamentals to justify the weakness). In today's case, bonds are weaker "just because." Jobless Claims data (206k vs 225k f'cast) didn't help though--especially considering a higher claims reading helped kick off the big rally 2 weeks ago. Bonds seem more interested in trading technicals at the moment based on the very linear selling so far this week. Now that yields have tagged 4.10, it will be interesting to see the next move and it would be a surprise to see a lack of commitment until we get Friday AM econ data.
Weaker overnight and little reaction to econ data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.102
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Feb 19 | |||||
| 8:20AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Trade Gap (bl) | Dec | $-70.3B | $-55.5B | $-56.8B |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Prices Paid | Feb | 38.90 | 46.90 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/07 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/07 | 1869K | 1860K | 1862K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 206K | 225K | 227K |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Business Index | Feb | 16.3 | 8.5 | 12.6 |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Dec | -0.2% | 0% | -0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jan Pending Home Sales (%) | Jan | -0.8% | 1.3% | -9.3% |
| 12:00PM | Feb/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/13 | 2.1M | 8.53M | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 9 | |||
| Friday, Feb 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 4.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.6% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 3% | 4.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Composite PMI | Feb | 53 | ||
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Services PMI | Feb | 53 | 52.7 | |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Feb | 52.6 | 52.4 | |
| 9:45AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (%) (%) | Dec | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Feb | 57.3 | 56.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.5% | 4% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb U Mich conditions | Feb | 57.7 | 55.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.4% | 3.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (ml) | Dec | 0.73M | ||
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