|
|
Dueling Narratives Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
Dueling Narratives Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
In the overnight session yields followed oil prices higher, but notably, Treasuries continued to sell even after oil leveled off. Then during domestic hours, it was Treasuries' turn to level off while oil prices spiked. From 9am to 2pm, oil rose nearly $5/bbl while Treasury yields remained completely flat. One way to justify this would be via safe-haven demand from heavy stock losses, but we continue not loving that explanation because it is even less reliably correlated than bonds vs oil. At this point, we're simply hoping that the jobs report helps restore some sense of normal market/data correlation, but at this point, anything's possible.
Slightly Weaker Ahead of Jobs Report
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Mar 06 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Participation Rate | Feb | 62% | 62.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Average earnings mm (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales (%) | Jan | -0.2% | -0.3% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jan | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Feb | -92K | 59K | 130K |
| 8:30AM | Feb Unemployment rate mm (%) | Feb | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 10:00AM | Dec Business Inventories (% ) | Dec | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 10:15AM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 10:15AM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| 1:20PM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Jan Consumer credit (bl) | Jan | $12B | $24.05B | |
| Monday, Mar 09 | |||||
| 11:00AM | Feb Consumer Inflation Expectations | Feb | 3.1% | ||
|
|
|
