Victory For Cynics as Ceasefire Rebound is Already Over

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Victory For Cynics as Ceasefire Rebound is Already Over

Even though there were doubts about their scope and impact, yesterday morning's headlines introduced the prospect of some sort of ceasefire in the Iran war. Markets traded accordingly, including the "doubts" part (i.e. there was an initial rebound yesterday and an additional rebound this morning). 10yr yields have now fully erased yesterday morning's gains even though oil prices remain quite a bit lower.

Market Movement Recap
08:51 AM

Losing ground in choppy trading as oil rebounds. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.389

09:54 AM

weakest levels. MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.409

12:30 PM

Off lows, but choppy.  MBS down 5 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.373

01:03 PM

Bumpy 2 year Treasury auction causing weakness.  MBS down 3/8ths again and 10yr up 7.2bps at 4.42

03:33 PM

recovering a bit after "war over soon" headlines. MBS still down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.385

Latest Video Analysis

Decent Gains Amid De-Escalation Headlines

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.16 -0.23 10YR 4.387% +0.040% 3/24/2026 3:37PM EST
Weakest Levels After 2yr Auction and War Headlines
2yr Treasury auctions rarely hit the longer end of the bond market, but today's is an exception. Around the same time, there were also headlines regarding troop deployments to Iran. MBS are now down more than 3/8ths of a point (weakest levels of the day). Same story with 10yr yields, up 7bps at 4.417 (weakest levels).    READ MORE
Alert:
Weakest Levels of The Morning
MBS Morning:
Victory For Cynics as Ceasefire Rebound is Already Over
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.55% +0.06% 15YR Fixed 6.12% +0.07% 3/24/2026
Highest Mortgage Rates Since August 2025
March 2026 continues to be an unpleasant month for mortgage rates --a fact almost exclusively due to the Iran war. Even if the war were to end today, there's been sufficient disruption to infrastructure and a big enough initial spike in energy prices to create what economists refer to as "second round effects." In simpler terms, this means that inflation expectations and interest rates will not immediately return to February's levels simply because the war is over. That'...   READ MORE
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Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Mar 24
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 10K 9K
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $8.071 billion
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Composite PMI Mar 51.4 51.9
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Services PMI Mar 51.1 51.5 51.7
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI Mar 52.4 51.3 51.6
10:00AM Feb New Home Sales (%) (%) Feb
10:00AM Feb New Home Sales (ml) Feb 0.745M
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
6:30PM Fed Barr Speech
Wednesday, Mar 25
7:00AM Mar/20 MBA Refi Index Mar/20 1341.0
7:00AM Mar/20 MBA Purchase Index Mar/20 172.9
7:00AM Mar/20 Mortgage Market Index Mar/20 347.1
8:30AM Feb Import prices mm (%) Feb 0.5% 0.2%
10:30AM Mar/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Mar/20 0.5M 6.156M
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.099%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
4:10PM Fed Miran Speech
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
March is Regime Change Month For Rates
3/20/2026 5:00PM
While the word "regime" is often seen in a geopolitical context, it's also common in financial markets. With respect to rates, the most recent regime involved steady improvement starting in May 2025 and ending 3 weeks ago. Since then, a new regime has been taking over and it kicked into high gear this week. Under the previous regime, bonds (which dictate rates) were operating on the following p... READ MORE
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.