No Whammies in CPI Data (And No Bond Market Reaction)
No Whammies in CPI Data (And No Bond Market Reaction)
The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today's actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a bit lower than forecasts. In addition, supercore fell to .179 from .349. Despite those victories, forecasts correctly predicted a sharp rise in headline inflation which moved up from 2.4% to 3.3% year over year. Apparently, it's hard to get excited about buying bonds with headline inflation over 3%, no matter how much one expects it. Yields are actually modestly higher after the data, adding to modest overnight weakness. That said, through 6am, 10yr yields have held in a narrow range that has topped out 2bps below yesterday's highs.
Slightly weaker this AM but leveling off with MBS unchanged and 10yr up 3bps at 4.306
weakest levels. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.319
flat for the past few hours with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.316
Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Apr 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar m/m Headline CPI (%) | Mar | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Mar m/m CORE CPI (%) | Mar | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Mar y/y CORE CPI (%) | Mar | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 8:30AM | Mar y/y Headline CPI (%) | Mar | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| 10:00AM | Feb Factory orders mm (%) | Feb | 0% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Apr | 47.6 | 52 | 53.3 |
| 10:00AM | Apr U Mich conditions | Apr | 50.1 | 55.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Apr | 3.4% | 3.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Apr | 4.8% | 3.8% | |
| 2:00PM | Mar Federal budget (bl) | Mar | $-164.1B | $-156.75B | $-308B |
| Monday, Apr 13 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Mar Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Mar | 1.7% | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Existing home sales (ml) | Mar | 4.01M | 4.09M | |
| 6:20PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
