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Hurrying Up And Waiting
Hurrying Up And Waiting
As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night's ceasefire deadline has come and gone with surprisingly little fanfare. Yes, the ceasefire was technically extended, but the more relevant point is that oil prices have traded inside a 4 dollar range that covered both the bullish and bearish potential outcomes. We've been saying for several weeks that the next big move for the bond market will be reserved for a truly momentous development such as the complete end of hostilities/blockades or a massive escalation into full-blown war. As it stands, it's a waiting game as Friday is now the earliest window for a potential resumption of peace talks.
MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.9 bps at 4.276
MBS now unchanged and 10yr also unchanged at 4.297
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.292
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 22 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/17 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/17 | 303.3 | 281.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/17 MBA Refi Index | Apr/17 | 1023.1 | 966.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/17 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/17 | 175.6 | 159.5 | |
| 10:30AM | Apr/17 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/17 | 1.925M | -1.2M | -0.913M |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| Thursday, Apr 23 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/11 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/11 | 1820K | 1818K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr/18 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/18 | 212K | 207K | |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Services PMI | Apr | 50 | 49.8 | |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Apr | 52.5 | 52.3 | |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Composite PMI | Apr | 50.3 | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 26 | |||
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