Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon

Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon

The day began with promise, but devolved into yet another disappointment. After being almost a quarter point higher at 10am, MBS slid to an eighth point loss by the close. 10yr yields were as low as 4.44% early but were as high as 4.48% in the final hour of trading. Just as frustrating as the weakness is the fact that there's no discrete scapegoat in the news or data. That said, oil prices were also moving higher during the bond sell-off. Given the absence of war-related headlines, some traders could be getting antsy due to a lack of progress in the first of Trump and Xi's 2 day meeting. Ahead of the event, there was some speculation that it would be a venue to announce a peace deal.

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Rally Reverses Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.88
-0.25 
10YR TREASURY
4.528
+0.043 
5/15/2026 12:54AM EST
Negative reprice risk was fairly limited when MBS hit their lows earlier today. Prices are now down another 3 ticks (.09) since then and nearly a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet print times. This makes negative reprices a more legitimate risk heading into the final hour.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.52%
-0.05% 
15YR Fixed
6.04%
-0.03% 
5/14/2026
May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen that volatility play out in favor of higher rates, today was thankfully the opposite.  Yesterday's latest levels left the average lender at 6 week highs with a top tier 30yr fixed rate of 6.57. The underlying bond market was already beginning to recover yesterday afternoon. Combined with additional, modest bond market imp...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, May 15
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM May NY Fed Manufacturing May 7.5 11.00
9:15AM Apr Industrial Production (%) Apr 0.3% -0.5%
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
Monday, May 18
8:30AM Fed Venable Speech
10:00AM May NAHB housing market indx May 34