Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines
Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines
Need a way to explain overnight weakness in the bond market? War headlines. Need to know why bonds rallied sharply just after 10am ET to hit the best levels in 2 weeks? Yep, more war headlines. Granted, the 8:30am econ data was not completely ignored. A slightly softer-than-expected PCE inflation number helped bonds get back to unchanged levels, but a substantial majority of the day's volume followed the 10am news that essentially suggested the peace deal was approved, pending Trump's final sign off. Later in the day, separate newswires suggested Iran hadn't fully signed off, but no one seemed to care. Day over day gains were mild in the bigger picture, but resulted in the best trading levels in 2 weeks by the 3pm close.
Spoiler Alert. Yes, It's War Headlines
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, May 28 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May/16 Continued Claims (k) | May/16 | 1786K | 1780K | 1782K |
| 8:30AM | Apr Building Permits (ml) | Apr | 1.423M | 1.442M | 1.363M |
| 8:30AM | May/23 Jobless Claims (k) | May/23 | 215K | 211K | 209K |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q1 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Corporate profits (% ) | Q1 | -0.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| 8:30AM | Apr PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Apr | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Apr PCE (y/y) (%) | Apr | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q1 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core CapEx (%) | Apr | -1.1% | 0.4% | 3.4% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Durable goods (%) | Apr | 7.9% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Apr | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| 8:55AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Apr New Home Sales (ml) | Apr | 0.622M | 0.67M | 0.682M |
| 10:00AM | Apr New Home Sales (%) (%) | Apr | -6.2% | 7.4% | |
| 12:00PM | May/22 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/22 | -3.327M | -4.1M | -7.864M |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| Friday, May 29 | |||||
| 9:10AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | May Chicago PMI | May | 50.5 | 49.2 | |
