More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over. As was frequently the case in the run-up to the signing of the MOU, it's hard to know which comments represent "tough talk" as opposed to legitimate shifts in policy and military activity. Trading levels reflect the same uncertainty (i.e. oil/yields are certainly higher, but also not nearly as high as they were in May).
More War-Related Weakness But With a Supportive Bounce
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 08 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/03 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/03 | 266.3 | 272.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/03 MBA Refi Index | Jul/03 | 794.4 | 828.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/03 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/03 | 169.5 | 170.6 | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/03 | 2.998M | -2.4M | -3.775M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 3:00PM | May Consumer credit (bl) | May | $-0.18B | $17.1B | $20.73B |
| Thursday, Jul 09 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul/04 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/04 | 218K | 215K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/27 Continued Claims (k) | Jun/27 | 1820K | 1814K | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $6.637 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Jun Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Jun | 3.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jun Existing home sales (ml) | Jun | 4.20M | 4.17M | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.020% | |||
| 1:30PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
