"Data dependent" is one of the most common phrases heard from the Federal Reserve these days when it comes to rate-setting policy. And while the Fed doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates...
As is often the case with internet headlines these days, the headline overstates the reality on the ground--or at least over-dramatizes it.
Considering the last notable "ceiling" was seen...
Mortgage rates continued their frustrating and somewhat perplexing move higher today, thus bringing the average lender close to the highest levels since the end of May.
Rising rates are ...
The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week which was exceptionally quiet.
In...
Mortgage rates rose at the fastest pace in 2 weeks yesterday, but that wasn't a very tall order considering an almost perfect absence of movement leading up to that. Now today, a good amou...
After operating in an exceptionally narrow range since the beginning of last week, mortgage rates finally started doing something a bit different today. Unfortunately, the differences res...
Mortgage rates have been flatter than the earth according to the flat earth society. Much like the actual earth in many areas in the middle of the country--and especially Florida--things c...
Most mortgage lenders offer mortgage rates in increments of 0.125% (i.e. 6.875, 7.0, 7.125, 7.25, etc.). As such, a particularly notable day of mortgage rate movement is one in which we s...
After a rocky start to the year, things began to improve for rates and the inflation outlook in May. June took the improvement to the next level, but this week didn't affect the bigger picture.
...
The bond market was closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. As such, mortgage lenders were either closed or unable to update mortgage rates based on market movement. To...
Mortgage rates began the week with a modest move back up and over the 7% threshold, but managed to erase some of those losses today. The improvement followed this morning's Retail Sales da...
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher to start the new week. With the average top tier 30yr fixed rate just under 7% on Friday, this meant a move to just over 7% today.
As alw...
Today saw the average conventional 30yr fixed rate rise ever so slightly for top tier scenarios. Most lenders are still quoting those scenarios just under 7%. Depending on the specifi...
You'd have to go back to March 28th to see the average mortgage lender offering a lower rate on a top tier, conventional 30yr fixed scenario than they're offering today. The same was techni...
It was an incredibly high consequence day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates due to the confluence of two extremely important events.
The first event was the monthly release of the...
Today's mortgage rates were fairly close to yesterday's at the average lender for the 3rd business day in a row. Friday was the last day with any substantial movement when rates spiked fo...
There's been a noticeable uptick in mortgage rate volatility over the past two weeks with a quick spike at the end of May, a nice drop in early June and then another spike last Friday following t...
There's a strong case to be made for the fact that interest rates had a sunny predisposition this week. In practical terms, that simply meant giving more credence to rate-friendly news an...
The outcome of certain economic reports will determine whether the next big move in interest rates is higher or lower. Two reports are more important than all others in that regard and we...
The phrase "data dependent" is ingrained in the current bond market psychology for good reason. Weaker trends in economic data will reliably cause the Fed to cut rates when the time comes.&...
For most lenders, you'd still see modestly lower rates on several days in mid May, but apart from that, you'd need to go all the way back to early April to see anything lower. Said differen...
Mortgage rates had a rough go of it in the 4 days following Memorial Day weekend (i.e. last week). To be fair, the tough part was limited to the first two days. Thursday and Friday both he...
This week got off to a late start as markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Upon returning to the office, traders began pushing rates higher almost immediately.
It's often said that th...
If we overlook the nearly unchanged performance from last Friday, mortgage rates were on a 5 day losing streak as of yesterday afternoon with the 30yr fixed rising about a quarter of a percent....
Mortgage rates most recently bottomed out on May 15th with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenario being quoted just a hair under 7.0%. It's been a fairly consistent march hi...
It was a mini rollercoaster of a day for mortgage rates with the average lender starting the day at lower levels than Friday only to end at the highest levels since May 3rd. The weakness ...
It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market thought it already knew. Specifically,...
For the most part, the current week is sorely lacking in the sort of scheduled economic data and events that typically contribute to exciting movement in the interest rate world. This morni...
It was another slow day for the mortgage market and one that joins a list of several other relatively inconsequential days in the past few weeks. This is a byproduct of the bond market (bon...
Referring to the past 3 business days as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates may be a bit harsh. During that time, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate rose less than an eighth of a perc...
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher on the two days at the end of last week. This put an end to a decent winning streak that had been in place since the beginning of the month, but it sto...
Mortgage rates have had a great month of May so far with almost every day being a winner up until yesterday and today. Even then, the 2 day losing streak began from the lowest levels in ju...
On the average day in the mortgage market, the average lender will offer the same mortgage rate terms for the entire day. It's only when the underlying bond market moves enough that lenders...
If it feels like we've been harping on the prospects for rate volatility in response to today's inflation data for several weeks (and we have), today is why. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) ...
We've been waiting for tomorrow since April 10th. That's the last time the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. This is one of the two official consumer-focused inflation indices ...
Last Thursday, mortgage rates merely had to hold steady in order to hit 1-month lows. In other words, Wednesday's rates were low enough to earn that distinction, but it technically hadn't...
In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, but this time is an exception.
While we can'...
The most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the lowest levels in a month as of today, but there are a few "yeah buts" that make that achievement look a bit less lofty. ...
Yesterday, we took a look at the recent winning streak for mortgage rates . Specifically, they had moved lower for 5 straight days--a feat only achieved two other times this year. Wh...
There have been 3 winning streaks for mortgage rates in 2024 where the average rate has moved lower for at least 5 days and where the conventional 30yr fixed rate has fallen by more than 0.25%....
Mortgage rates did well last week, making it almost halfway back to the lower levels seen on April 9th. Why focus on April 9th? That was the last day before the most recent Consumer ...
It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic reports that caused rate volatility. Thankfully,...
The bond market--which dictates interest rates --had a generally favorable response to yesterday's update from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed didn't cut rates, and while they're increa...
Wednesday brought a full schedule of events and data for the bond market to digest and bonds dictate day to day changes in mortgage rates . The morning's data was perfectly palatable, resu...
A mortgage rate is highly subjective and can vary for a variety of reasons. A news story that provides an outright level like 7.5% requires context and qualification. Some online adve...
Mortgage rates didn't change much at all over the weekend with the average lender still in the highest territory since November. The average conventional 30yr fixed rate is just under 7.5%...
As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected.
Rates&n...
Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations. One of the Fed's favorite ways to track progress on inflation is...
The average mortgage lender was able to offer conventional 30yr fixed rates that were very close to yesterday's levels despite bond market movement that suggested a bigger spike. In a vast ...
Mortgage rates are driven by day to day changes in the bond market. Bonds are focused on the Fed and the economic data that shapes Fed decisions. Today's data isn't necessarily big o...