Daily Mortgage Rate Commentary Archive

Fri, September 12, 7:20 PM

Mortgage Rates Were Flat All Week No Matter What Other News Suggests - Fri, September 12, 7:20 PM

The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered by mortgage lenders) weakened moderately overnight. Weaker bonds equate to higher rates, all else equal. "Higher ra...

Thu, September 11, 7:51 PM

Mortgage Rates Move Back to Long-Term Lows - Thu, September 11, 7:51 PM

Today's inflation report (the Consumer Price Index or CPI) certainly had a chance to create volatility for rates, but things ended up staying fairly calm. There are multiple subheadings o...

Wed, September 10, 8:02 PM

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady With Help From Econ Data - Wed, September 10, 8:02 PM

Wednesday brought the first of this week's two key inflation reports. While the Producer Price Index (PPI) is the lesser of the two in terms of potential impact on rates, it came in far enough be...

Tue, September 9, 7:19 PM

Mortgage Rates Finally Tick Slightly Higher - Tue, September 9, 7:19 PM

It had to happen at some point. After spending 4 straight days of setting new 11-month lows, mortgage rates finally moved higher today, but the headline is much scarier than reality. In fact,...

Mon, September 8, 7:34 PM

Another 11-Month Low For Rates, But Just Barely - Mon, September 8, 7:34 PM

To their credit, most mortgage lenders did an admirable job of aggressively pricing-in the bond market rally after last Friday's jobs report. Many mortgage market pros repeat the phrase "stairs d...

Fri, September 5, 3:51 PM

Mortgage Rates Plummet Back to Fall 2024 Levels - Fri, September 5, 3:51 PM

It's a well-known fact that the monthly jobs report is more capable of causing big reactions in rates than any other economic data. It happened last month in grand fashion, and it is happening ag...

Thu, September 4, 7:22 PM

Mortgage Rates Hit Another 2025 Low Ahead of a Potentially Volatile Friday - Thu, September 4, 7:22 PM

The jobs report is the most important scheduled event each month as far as interest rates are concerned. The last installment helped get the average 30yr fixed rate down from 6.75 to 6.50 becau...

Wed, September 3, 7:42 PM

Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 11-Month Low - Wed, September 3, 7:42 PM

October 3rd is a date that has come up many times in the past month of mortgage rate coverage. That's because there's been a veritable chasm between the rates on that day and every other day sinc...

Tue, September 2, 7:57 PM

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start September - Tue, September 2, 7:57 PM

Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds can do funny things on the first and last trading days of any given month. One of the most common "funny things" involves a decent amount of market mo...

Fri, August 29, 6:30 PM

Rates End Week at Best Levels; Next Week Could be Huge - Fri, August 29, 6:30 PM

It was a very slow and steady week for mortgage rates . On all 5 days, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate moved by 0.02% or less. This is a small enough change that the average borrower ...

Thu, August 28, 7:15 PM

30yr Fixed Rates Officially Back to 6.50% - Thu, August 28, 7:15 PM

There is no singular, official primary source for mortgage rate levels. The going rate is whatever can be locked/closed at any given lender. As such, we rely on surveys and data aggregations in o...

Wed, August 27, 7:44 PM

Mortgage Rates Hit Another 2025 Low - Wed, August 27, 7:44 PM

It continues to be the case that day-to-day changes in average mortgage rates are very small. Today was no exception in that regard. Nonetheless, today represents a technical "record low" for 2...

Tue, August 26, 9:15 PM

Mortgage Rates Back in Line With Long-Term Lows - Tue, August 26, 9:15 PM

Mortgage rates tend to move at least a little every day although they haven't been moving too much in the bigger picture recently. The only truly memorable move int he past few months occurred a...

Mon, August 25, 7:50 PM

Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher From Long-Term Lows - Mon, August 25, 7:50 PM

After last week's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, rates fell to their lowest levels since October 3rd, 2024, narrowly surpassing the recent long-term low seen on August 13th. Powell ta...

Fri, August 22, 7:15 PM

Lowest Rates of The Year (Barely) After Powell Speech - Fri, August 22, 7:15 PM

Heading into the week, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium was only event on the calendar that held much promise for motivating any major movement in mortgage ra...

Thu, August 21, 5:03 PM

Mortgage Rates Inch Higher Yet Again - Thu, August 21, 5:03 PM

In a world (like this one) where mortgage rates are dictated by bond market movement and where bonds take cues from certain economic reports, weeks like this one can be frustrating or boring.&n...

Wed, August 20, 6:57 PM

Mortgage Rates Barely Budge - Wed, August 20, 6:57 PM

For the 11th straight business day, mortgage rates are very close to the levels from the end of the previous day. Over the past week, however, most of these small day-to-day movements hav...

Tue, August 19, 7:32 PM

Mortgage Rates Little Changed From Monday - Tue, August 19, 7:32 PM

Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds, and bonds have some seasonality to them. This doesn't necessarily mean there's a reliable seasonal pattern for the direction of rate movement.&...

Mon, August 18, 7:39 PM

Rates Trickle to Another Higher Low - Mon, August 18, 7:39 PM

Mortgage rates are as high as they've been on almost any other day this month. You'd have to go back to August 1st to see anything higher. On the other hand, rates are still noticeab...

Fri, August 15, 6:17 PM

Highest Rates This Week, But Close Enough to Long Term Lows - Fri, August 15, 6:17 PM

Friday proved to be the weakest day of the week for the underlying bond market and, thus, the highest day of the week for mortgage rates . Retail sales data was generally stronger than expected,...

Thu, August 14, 5:08 PM

Mortgage Rates Mostly Steady Despite Some Market Volatility - Thu, August 14, 5:08 PM

Mortgage rates hit fresh long term lows yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at the best levels since October 3rd, 2024. There wasn't anything exceptional about the movement...

Wed, August 13, 5:34 PM

Mortgage Rates Hit New 10 Month Lows - Wed, August 13, 5:34 PM

October 3rd, 2024 continues to be the day to beat when it comes to mortgage rates hanging out at 10 month lows. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate matched October 4th levels for the first time si...

Tue, August 12, 7:50 PM

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Key Inflation Report - Tue, August 12, 7:50 PM

Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds that actually dictate mortgage pricing will...

Mon, August 11, 6:58 PM

Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of High Stakes Inflation Report - Mon, August 11, 6:58 PM

The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over the weekend. By comparison, today's rates are much closer to Friday's latest levels and...

Fri, August 8, 5:57 PM

Mortgage Rates Flat Ahead of Next Week’s High-Stakes Data - Fri, August 8, 5:57 PM

Mortgage rates finally moved in a slightly more noticeable direction today, but the change was still inconsequential in the bigger picture. The average 30yr fixed rate in our index edged up a me...

Thu, August 7, 7:54 PM

Mortgage Rates Hit Another New Longer-Term Low - Thu, August 7, 7:54 PM

Mortgage rates have barely budged after Monday with the day-over-day change failing to exceed 0.02% on any given day. But today's budging happened to bring the average 30yr fixed rate to another...

Wed, August 6, 7:31 PM

Mortgage Rates Steadily Holding Longer-Term Lows - Wed, August 6, 7:31 PM

Although there were flashes of potential volatility in the underlying bond market at times today, mortgage rates made it through unscathed. In other words, the volatility wasn't sufficien...

Tue, August 5, 7:50 PM

Mortgage Rates Holding at 10 Month Lows - Tue, August 5, 7:50 PM

Yesterday saw the average 30yr fixed rate fall back in line with levels from early October, 2024. This happened for two reasons. The broader, underlying reason is that rates have been in a fairly...

Mon, August 4, 8:09 PM

Lowest Mortgage Rates Since Early October - Mon, August 4, 8:09 PM

Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds take cues from economic data, among other things. The monthly jobs report is routinely the most closely watched economic report...

Fri, August 1, 7:36 PM

Mortgage Rates Instantly Drop to 4 Month Lows After Jobs Report - Fri, August 1, 7:36 PM

Every month, we offer the same old warning/reminder ahead of the big jobs report--something to the effect of "no other economic report has as much power to cause volatility in rates, for better o...

Thu, July 31, 7:51 PM

Mortgage Rates Hold Near July Lows Ahead of Jobs Report - Thu, July 31, 7:51 PM

Mortgage rates went to bed last night knowing that the bond market would need to improve in the morning in order for prevailing levels to be maintained. In other words, bonds had begun losing gr...

Wed, July 30, 7:49 PM

Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower - Wed, July 30, 7:49 PM

Wednesday brought another incremental increase in the level and importance of the calendar events with the power to create volatility for rates. Some of the events were economic reports out earli...

Tue, July 29, 7:43 PM

Mortgage Rates Moving Down Again - Tue, July 29, 7:43 PM

After three straight days at exactly the same level, average 30yr fixed rates began to move lower again on Tuesday. It should immediately be clarified that the word "began" implies a certain like...

Mon, July 28, 7:15 PM

Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Flat to Start New Week - Mon, July 28, 7:15 PM

If any given week of movement in the mortgage rate world came with disclaimer, this one would be: "Warning. An absence of volatility on Monday has no bearing on odds for volatility in the rest of...

Fri, July 25, 8:16 PM

Mortgage Rates End Week Unchanged. Next Week, Probably Not... - Fri, July 25, 8:16 PM

It's no great secret that the outgoing week didn't offer much in terms of hotly anticipated events with the power to make or break momentum in the rate market. But as it happened, there was...

Thu, July 24, 7:41 PM

Mortgage Rates Drift Slightly Higher Again - Thu, July 24, 7:41 PM

After falling for 5 straight days leading into Tuesday, mortgage rates have now moved slightly higher on each of the past two days. As was the case with the improvement, the bounce back has bee...

Wed, July 23, 7:22 PM

Mortgage Rates Tick Higher, But Just Barely - Wed, July 23, 7:22 PM

It's been a pretty good run for mortgage rates since hitting their most recent highs last Tuesday. Each subsequent day saw a modest improvement. That winning streak finally ended today, but jus...

Tue, July 22, 7:25 PM

Mortgage Rates Inch Down to 2-Week Lows - Tue, July 22, 7:25 PM

Last week, we got a sneak preview of how the market would react to Fed Chair Powell ending his term early. In a nutshell, only the shortest-term rates would improve while most consumer rates woul...

Mon, July 21, 7:57 PM

Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower to Start New Week - Mon, July 21, 7:57 PM

Mortgage rates didn't move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario versus last Friday. That makes this ...

Fri, July 18, 9:10 PM

Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Today and This Week - Fri, July 18, 9:10 PM

While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares reserved for a big reaction to inflation data.&nb...

Thu, July 17, 6:51 PM

Mortgage Rates Staying Broadly Sideways - Thu, July 17, 6:51 PM

Despite all of the economic data and news headlines over the past few days, mortgage rates have barely budged since last Friday. That was not what we expected this week given the anticipation f...

Wed, July 16, 7:06 PM

Mortgage Rates Mostly Sideways After Dodging Mid-Day Drama - Wed, July 16, 7:06 PM

This morning brought another inflation report. Given the negative reaction to yesterday's inflation data, there was some cause for concern. Thankfully, today's data was more unequivocally accepta...

Tue, July 15, 7:06 PM

Mortgage Rates Move Higher Despite Decent Inflation Reading - Tue, July 15, 7:06 PM

Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds don't like inflation. When inflation reports are higher than the market expected, rates tend to rise, all other things being equal. ...

Mon, July 14, 6:59 PM

Mortgage Rates Just a Hair Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Report - Mon, July 14, 6:59 PM

Today's movement in mortgage rates , in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday's levels but is technically just a hair higher. T...

Fri, July 11, 5:45 PM

Highest Mortgage Rates of The Week, Just Barely - Fri, July 11, 5:45 PM

Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words like "up" and "higher" might need to be spri...

Thu, July 10, 8:49 PM

Mortgage Rates Broadly Sideways - Thu, July 10, 8:49 PM

Most of this week's mortgage rate movement has been an aftershock following last week's jobs report. That data sent rates quickly higher and that momentum has gradually faded over the past few da...

Wed, July 9, 7:35 PM

Mortgage Rate Losing Streak Ends With Moderate Victory - Wed, July 9, 7:35 PM

It's a bit of a stretch to refer to the past week as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates . The worst part about it was the consistency of upward movement starting last Wednesday. In terms of th...

Tue, July 8, 7:26 PM

Mortgage Rates Still Lower Than May/June Despite Drifting Higher - Tue, July 8, 7:26 PM

Bad news first: mortgage rates have been moving steadily higher in July with the average top tier 30yr fixed scenario rising from 6.67% to 6.81% in just 4 business days. This isn't an inc...

Mon, July 7, 7:13 PM

Mortgage Rates Continue Higher For Third Straight Day - Mon, July 7, 7:13 PM

For the entire 2nd half of June, it was easy to be spoiled by the absence of volatility in mortgage rates . During that time, rates were either lower or unchanged every single day. The past few ...

Thu, July 3, 6:56 PM

Mortgage Rates Rose Less Than Expected After Employment Data - Thu, July 3, 6:56 PM

Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report. This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as much consistent power to cause volatilit...

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