MBS & US Treasury Markets
3/6 7:35:29PM EST : Delayed Data

There are a few moving pieces to the bond market narrative on Thursday.  The general backdrop consists of yield curve steepening (fancy words that mean 10yr yields are moving higher relative to 2yr yields, or that  2s are falling more than 10s). Steepening has been the norm since mid-2023, but February marked a correction to that trend.  March is getting it back on track, perhaps.

MBS are somewhat indifferent as they're in sort of a middle ground between the long and short end of the duration spectrum. This made for a stronger start in MBS despite higher 10yr yields. After that, we've had two instance of selling pressure: one from jobless claims data and the other from a delay in tariff implementation. Prior to that, the often overlooked Challenger Job Cut Report fueled some bond buying as it jumped to the highest levels in more than a decade, not including covid lockdowns.

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08:39 AM

Losing some ground after Jobless Claims.  MBS back to unchanged on the day and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.288

10:41 AM

Losing more ground after Lutnick's comments on USMCA tariff delays.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 6.1bps at 4.337

01:28 PM

Bouncing back over the past 2 hours as stocks swoon again.  MBS down only 1 tick (.03) on the day at 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.293

03:24 PM

fairly flat in the PM hours.  Stocks and bonds are moving together as Trump speaks.  MBS up 1 tick and 10yr yields only half a bp higher at 4.281