Bill Hills | Loans to $30MM
Senior Originator
Interconnect Mortgage, Inc.
M: (847) 830-2312
FloridaLuxuryLending.com
5220 Hood Rd
Ste 110
Palm Beach Gardens Florida 33418
License:
NMLS# 843018
Equal Housing Opportunity
MBS & US Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
101.37 +0.02
GNMA 6.0
101.37 -0.01
UMBS-15 5.0
100.29 +0.04
10 YR TREAS
4.363 -0.012
30 YR TREAS
4.890 -0.013
7/31 3:54:10PM EST : Delayed Data
30YR UMBS 6.0 30YR GNMA 6.0 15YR UMBS 5.0 10 Year Treasury 30 Year Treasury
What Does July's Data Suggest About Friday's Jobs Report?
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 3:11 PM

Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower in tomorrow's data. Credit for this concept and collation of the data goes to our friends at BMO's US Rates Strategy desk.

The "beat/miss/match" row refers to the percent of previous July payroll counts beating, missing, or matching the forecast.

Jobless Claims
Report Result NFP Implication
Initial Claims (NFP week) 221k vs 233k f'cast Higher
Continuing Claims 1946k vs 1951k prior Higher
Private Payrolls
ADP Employment 104k vs 76k f'cast Higher
Liscio Estimate 105k vs 104k consensus Neutral
Unemployment Report History
Beat / Miss / Match (July) 42% / 35% / 23% Mixed / Slightly Higher
Labor Differential 11.3 vs 12.2 prior Lower
Regional Fed Surveys
Empire State - Employees 9.2 vs 4.7 prior Higher
Empire State - Workweek 4.2 vs -1.5 prior Higher
Philly Fed - Employees 10.3 vs -9.8 prior Higher
Philly Fed - Workweek 0.4 vs -1.6 prior Higher
Other Indicators
Challenger Job Cuts (July) 62,075 vs 47,999 prior Lower
Payroll Seasonality (ex-2020) Miss 54%, Beat 46% (avg ±60k) Slightly Lower
Update:
Weakest Levels of The Day
MBS Morning:
No Whammies From PCE
08:34 AM

Little changed from stronger overnight levels after data.  MBS are up just over an eighth and 10yr yields are down 3bps at 4.345

11:49 AM

resilience into late AM hours.  10yr down 4bps at 4.335 and MBS up an eighth

02:40 PM

10yr yields still down 1.6 bps at 4.359, but at highs of day. MBS are still up 2 ticks (.06), but at the lows of the day.

Bill Hills | Loans to $30MM
Senior Originator
Interconnect Mortgage, Inc.
M: (847) 830-2312
FloridaLuxuryLending.com
5220 Hood Rd
Ste 110
Palm Beach Gardens Florida 33418
License:
NMLS# 843018
Equal Housing Opportunity
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.