Mortgage Banker
Frontier Mortgage
License:
1406168
MBS & US Treasury Markets
3/12 4:30:33PM EST : Delayed Data

Today's CPI came in lower than expected. That would normally help bonds rally, but they didn't seem too eager to do that. One explanation is that the components of CPI that have a bearing on PCE suggest PCE will be higher than previously expected. While we don't usually see PCE move markets as much as CPI, that's because PCE is much easier to forecast after CPI and PPI come out. As far as the Fed is concerned, PCE has the final say when it comes to measuring progress toward 2% inflation. As such, if today's CPI says that PCE (2 weeks from now) looks like it will be higher than previously expected, the implication is for bond market weakness as opposed to strength.

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09:31 AM

Weaker overnight and mixed reaction to CPI (mostly ignored). MBS down 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.316

12:46 PM

MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.308

03:41 PM

Fairly flat in the afternoon, despite some noise in both directions.  MBS are unchanged and 10yr yields are up 3.6bps at 4.317

Mortgage Banker
Frontier Mortgage
License:
1406168