Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they've been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn't worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big jobs report--especially when continued jobless claims aren't doing anything interesting--but at the very least, this argues against serious labor market concern. The Revelio payroll count of -9k came out 15 minutes later, and argues back in the other direction to some extent--but it didn't generate even a fraction of the volume associated with initial claims (and essentially zero reaction in yields).
Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they've been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn't worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big jobs report--especially when continued jobless claims aren't doing anything interesting--but at the very least, this argues against serious labor market concern. The Revelio payroll count of -9k came out 15 minutes later, and argues back in the other direction to some extent--but it didn't generate even a fraction of the volume associated with initial claims (and essentially zero reaction in yields).