MBS & US Treasury Markets
9/4 8:18:37PM EST : Delayed Data

Thursday morning's slate of econ data was the most active of the week with claims, layoffs, ADP, and ISM Services (also the Trade Gap and Labor Costs, but those aren't really in the "market mover" category). Ironically, almost all of today's movement happened in the overnight session whereas the mixed data has seen a broadly sideways reaction. ADP was slightly weaker than expected, but it wasn't enough for bond buyers (there was modest selling after ADP). ISM was a bit stronger at the headline level, but the bond-bearish message was tempered by weak employment and a modest downtick in prices. Bottom line: this data isn't weak enough to prompt a friendly lead-off ahead of Friday's jobs report, but not strong enough to derail the overnight gains.

20250904 ADP.png

20250904 pmi1.png

20250904 pmi emp.png

20250904 open.png

08:15 AM

Limited reaction to ADP data, but no bad reaction.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.183

10:02 AM

Off best levels after ISM data.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.193

11:50 AM

Sideways drift continues.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.19

03:04 PM

Best levels of the day with MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.171