KV Mortgage
MBS & US Treasury Markets
3/9 11:15:56AM EST : Delayed Data

Since the outbreak of the military operation in Iran, there have been varying levels of spillover from rising oil prices to the bond market. There have been notable pockets of time where the correlation broke down, but when viewed in less granular detail, oil prices and bond yields have moved higher together over the past week. Now this morning, there's a new mega-surge in oil (presumably due to Iran's leadership announcement and its implications for more military escalation) and the correlation is undeniable when viewed over a short time period. Today's first chart shows there's no question of that short-term correlation. 

20260309 open.png

The second chart shows that the correlation is definitely not proportional (the scaling is set to the same proportions used last week in order to illustrate the size of the jump in oil).

20260309 open2.png

08:19 AM

Sharply weaker overnight with oil price spike. High yields of 4.21% in 10yr.  Now up only 4.2bps at 4.171.  MBS down just under a quarter point.

10:48 AM

Off the weakest levels. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.157

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