Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. Then at 7:04am, newswires indicated "talks" between the US and Iran, and a 5 day ceasefire of sorts. Yields and oil plunged instantly. Stocks rallied. The 10yr dipped as low as 4.308% before bouncing. The bounce coincided with reports that there were no talks, but yet other newswires suggested those talks happened through intermediaries and not directly with Iran. Either way, the 5 day moratorium on US strikes in Iran is worth something to the market.
Weaker overnight then sharply stronger just after 7am on "war might end" headlines. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.366 after being as high as 4.442 just before 7am.
Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. Then at 7:04am, newswires indicated "talks" between the US and Iran, and a 5 day ceasefire of sorts. Yields and oil plunged instantly. Stocks rallied. The 10yr dipped as low as 4.308% before bouncing. The bounce coincided with reports that there were no talks, but yet other newswires suggested those talks happened through intermediaries and not directly with Iran. Either way, the 5 day moratorium on US strikes in Iran is worth something to the market.