Michael Levine
Senior Loan Officer
CrossCountry Mortgage
License:
307827
MBS & US Treasury Markets
3/11 9:49:24AM EST : Delayed Data

There was a very high bar for today's CPI to cause any serious market reaction due to all the new inflationary impulses that may be created by record volatility in energy markets that hasn't yet made it into the official data. In other words, CPI is a time capsule for a bygone era and the market is already trading the implications on future inflation reports to the best of its ability using oil prices as a proxy. Before the data, 10yr yields were a few bps higher overnight and haven't moved since the data. MBS are unchanged to a hair stronger after accounting for "the roll." 

Rather than dissect the data that failed to move the market (it was fairly boring anyway as everything came in right in line with forecasts), we can take another look at the interesting impact of chart scaling. Specifically, we talked about how Treasuries broke up and away from the path suggested by oil prices yesterday. A full 3-day chart reiterates that assessment:

20260311 open.png

But if we zoom in to a 2-day chart (which chops off the super high oil prices on Monday), it's much easier to see that oil and yields are still strongly correlated.

20260311 open2.png

08:41 AM

Weaker overnight and no reaction to CPI. MBS roughly unchanged. 10yr yield up 2.5bps at 4.185

Michael Levine
Senior Loan Officer
CrossCountry Mortgage
License:
307827