Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have provided an obvious tailwind. With the government shutdown now confirmed, this will be the week's only broad payroll data. It's certainly not worth nearly as much of a reaction as the jobs report, but it's definitely worth something.
Stronger after ADP data. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.9bps at 4.109
10:16 AM
Minimal reaction to ISM data, but off the best levels. 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.113 (up from 4.09 lows). MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) but down 3 ticks (.09) from highs.
Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have provided an obvious tailwind. With the government shutdown now confirmed, this will be the week's only broad payroll data. It's certainly not worth nearly as much of a reaction as the jobs report, but it's definitely worth something.