Dan Frio
Sr Mortgage Loan Officer
The Frio Team Powered by Peoples Bank & Trust
P: (844) 775-5626
M: (630) 768-1317
www.TheRateUpdate.com
YouTube
524 Main St
Hazard ky 41701
License:
246527
MBS & US Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
101.40 +0.04
GNMA 6.0
101.38 +0.01
UMBS-15 5.0
100.29 +0.04
10 YR TREAS
4.363 -0.012
30 YR TREAS
4.893 -0.010
7/31 3:20:25PM EST : Delayed Data
30YR UMBS 6.0 30YR GNMA 6.0 15YR UMBS 5.0 10 Year Treasury 30 Year Treasury
What Does July's Data Suggest About Friday's Jobs Report?
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 3:11 PM

Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower in tomorrow's data. Credit for this concept and collation of the data goes to our friends at BMO's US Rates Strategy desk.

The "beat/miss/match" row refers to the percent of previous July payroll counts beating, missing, or matching the forecast.

Jobless Claims
Report Result NFP Implication
Initial Claims (NFP week) 221k vs 233k f'cast Higher
Continuing Claims 1946k vs 1951k prior Higher
Private Payrolls
ADP Employment 104k vs 76k f'cast Higher
Liscio Estimate 105k vs 104k consensus Neutral
Unemployment Report History
Beat / Miss / Match (July) 42% / 35% / 23% Mixed / Slightly Higher
Labor Differential 11.3 vs 12.2 prior Lower
Regional Fed Surveys
Empire State - Employees 9.2 vs 4.7 prior Higher
Empire State - Workweek 4.2 vs -1.5 prior Higher
Philly Fed - Employees 10.3 vs -9.8 prior Higher
Philly Fed - Workweek 0.4 vs -1.6 prior Higher
Other Indicators
Challenger Job Cuts (July) 62,075 vs 47,999 prior Lower
Payroll Seasonality (ex-2020) Miss 54%, Beat 46% (avg ±60k) Slightly Lower
Update:
Weakest Levels of The Day
MBS Morning:
No Whammies From PCE
08:34 AM

Little changed from stronger overnight levels after data.  MBS are up just over an eighth and 10yr yields are down 3bps at 4.345

11:49 AM

resilience into late AM hours.  10yr down 4bps at 4.335 and MBS up an eighth

02:40 PM

10yr yields still down 1.6 bps at 4.359, but at highs of day. MBS are still up 2 ticks (.06), but at the lows of the day.

Dan Frio
Sr Mortgage Loan Officer
The Frio Team Powered by Peoples Bank & Trust
P: (844) 775-5626
M: (630) 768-1317
www.TheRateUpdate.com
YouTube
524 Main St
Hazard ky 41701
License:
246527
Home | Weekly Newsletter | Mortgage Calculators | Library | Econ Calendar
Mortgage Calculators | Weekly Newsletter

These marketing tools are provided by © MBS Live, LLC. All rights reserved.   Learn more about these services.

Reproduction or redistribution of the contents of this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, either in whole or in part, is prohibited without prior written permission of the MBS Live, Inc.

The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.

© MBS Live, LLC. - All rights reserved.

Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.