Modestly stronger overnight and catching a "no whammies" bid early. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr yield down 6 bps at 4.475
Best levels of the day with MBS up nearly half a point and 10yr down 8.5bps at 4.45
Still near best levels. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 8bps at 4.456
This morning's market action is quickly helping us understand the enigmatic trading seen yesterday (i.e. a sell-off without any great scapegoats). Retail sales' control group was well below expectations and helped validate a moderate overnight rally. Bigger moves and more sustained volume followed Powell's scheduled speech at the policy framework conference. Perhaps there was a concern that Powell's update would hint at a shift toward tolerating "higher for longer" policy rates in the same way that the 2020 framework review resulted in a "lower for longer" playbook. The net effect has been a nearly complete reversal of yesterday's weakness, but yields are currently bouncing before finishing that job.