Founder/CEO
Boss Mortgage, LLC
License:
NMLS #1455628 OR, WA, ID, CO, MT, CA, AZ
Company NMLS 2547821
MBS & US Treasury Markets
12/16 3:50:31PM EST : Delayed Data

If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November (a new cycle high). This is mitigated somewhat by the uptick in participation rate (0.1%) and the slightly higher payroll count (64k vs 50k f'cast). In addition, BLS noted lower response rates for the household survey (unemployment rate) and a generally unknown impact from the government shutdown. Perhaps important is the fact that the unrounded unemployment rate only rose 0.13% versus the 0.2% rounded figure. Bond market volume has been predictably stratospheric, but the movement has been frustratingly flat. All in all, the jobs data simply confirms exactly what the Fed has been saying: modest ongoing weakness in labor market, but nothing catastrophic. It leaves room to focus on Thursday's CPI as policy-setting counterpoint.

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08:36 AM

Modestly stronger after jobs report. MBS up almost an eighth and 10yr down 1.1bps at 4.165

09:27 AM

Paradoxically modestly weaker now with MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.191

12:56 PM

Back near best levels of the day. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.156

02:28 PM

Leveling off at only modestly stronger levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr still down 2.1 ticks at 4.156

Founder/CEO
Boss Mortgage, LLC
License:
NMLS #1455628 OR, WA, ID, CO, MT, CA, AZ
Company NMLS 2547821