MBS & US Treasury Markets
2/4 2:54:56PM EST : Delayed Data

Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET).  The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't react.  15 minutes later, Treasury released financing estimates for the quarter. These were as-expected and unchanged from the previous quarter, but Treasury noted that issuance would likely need to increase in fiscal year 2027.  Higher issuance = higher rates, all else equal. This wasn't necessarily a surprise or even "new" info, but the reminder may have been worth a bit of selling at 8:30am.  ISM remains the day's biggest source of potential volatility. 

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08:24 AM

No major reaction to ADP data.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.27

10:03 AM

Weaker ISM Services and a slight rally in bonds.  10yr was 4.29, but now down to 4.272.  MBS are 2 ticks (.06) off the lows, but still down 2 ticks on the day.

02:53 PM

MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.276