Residential and Commercial Real Estate FInance
Homeplus Mortgage
License:
NMLS 339261
NMLS 2415712
MBS & US Treasury Markets
12/26 6:30:00PM EST : Delayed Data

Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting right back to the messaging that's been in force for most of the month. Specifically, the path of least resistance is for longer term rates to move higher at a faster pace than short term rates. Things like the jobs report early in the month or the Fed announcement last week have contributed to this steepening effect (fancy jargon for 10yr yields moving higher faster than 2yr yields), but there are days where that momentum seems self-sustaining without any additional motivation.  Today is just the latest example.

The following chart is from 12/24, but nothing has changed since then in the bigger picture.

202412324 open.png

Today's only relevant econ data is weekly jobless claims, and there's nothing interesting to report there.  Claims came in just under forecast, and even in non-seasonally adjusted terms, they continue tracking with the recent reference years.

20241226 jobless claims.png

08:35 AM

Moderately weaker overnight and little changed after data.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.9bps at 4.634

11:54 AM

recovering somewhat.  MBS down 1 tick and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.611

01:05 PM

MBS now 1 tick higher after strong 7yr auction.  10yr yield up only half a bp at 4.59

03:14 PM

Holding near best levels with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down nearly 1bp at 4.578

Residential and Commercial Real Estate FInance
Homeplus Mortgage
License:
NMLS 339261
NMLS 2415712