Joshua Daniel
President
NAV Home Loans
License:
2708570
MBS & US Treasury Markets
7/3 5:59:00PM EST : Delayed Data

Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, the morning has proceeded almost exactly as expected. We assumed that even an on-target result was worth a bit of bond market weakness given the apparent "lead-off" induced by preceding data. The moderately stronger result (147k vs 110k f'cast) was more than enough to add some emphasis to the sell-off.  Add the 0.2% drop in unemployment and it was game over.  Are there some "yeah buts" in the data?  Sure, but none so striking as to suggest yields should be lower instead of higher today.

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One potential saving grace for the bond market (maybe not today, but in the next few months) is that revisions have been much more aligned with the consensus.

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09:14 AM

Sharply weaker after jobs data, but recovering somewhat.  MBS down an eighth of a point and 10yr up 5bps at 4.33

02:24 PM

Very flat after AM sell-off, and now closed for the day.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 6.7bps at 4.347

Joshua Daniel
President
NAV Home Loans
License:
2708570