Slightly stronger overnight and limited reaction to Philly Fed. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.016
Quick reversal after 10s hit 4.0%. Now up half a bp to 4.034. MBS down a quick 3 ticks (.09) and just over an eighth from AM highs.
Bouncing back a bit now. MBS unchanged and 10yr down nearly 1bp at 4.019
Big mystery rally from 12:15 to 12:45. 10yr down 3.8bps at 3.991. MBS up and eighth.
Near best levels. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.6bps at 3.973
Starting around 12:15pm ET and accelerating quickly at 12:25pm, bonds began a sharp rally, led quite clearly by the short end of the yield curve and Fed Funds Futures. In this short time, year-end Fed rate expectations dropped from 3.60 to 3.56. That may not sound like a lot, but it's the biggest move over such a short time window in over a month.
10yr yields are now down 4bps at 3.987 and MBS are up 3 ticks (.09). We'll circle back if we get clarity on the underlying mover. To be sure though, it is not a currently published news article or anything else on the normal beaten path (not yet anyway).