SVP - Area Manager
Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp.
License:
208371
MBS & US Treasury Markets
9/26 9:52:23PM EST : Delayed Data

At the risk of tempting fate by discussing a leveling-off of the post-Fed correction again, the overnight session saw the most compelling case yet for the correction having run its course.  The evidence didn't have as much to do with the outright level of gains in longer term yields as it did with the shape of yield curve trading over the past 2 days.  During that time, the curve hit a ceiling and held flat for the longest period of time post-Fed-meeting.

20240926 open2.png

The improvement in yields was a bonus, but it was quickly counteracted by a stronger round of 8:30am econ data.

20240926 open3.png

Last but not least, it's important not to assume that the yield curve movement will mean one specific thing for longer term rates going forward.  The curve can widen/rise even as rates are coming down--something that it has done quite a bit over the past few months.  Either way, the evolution of the following chart would look least surprising if it continues to widen.

20240926 open.png

09:39 AM

Stronger overnight, weaker after data and now back near unchanged.  

10:28 AM

Back to weakest levels now.  10yr up 2.5bps at 3.81 and MBS down an eighth. 

01:31 PM

modest friendly bounce just before and after the 7yr auction (not necessarily because of it). 10yr up 1.2bps at 3.797 and MBS unchanged. 

04:12 PM

No major changes since the last update.  MBS down 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr up 1bp at 3.794

SVP - Area Manager
Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp.
License:
208371