Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting right back to the messaging that's been in force for most of the month. Specifically, the path of least resistance is for longer term rates to move higher at a faster pace than short term rates. Things like the jobs report early in the month or the Fed announcement last week have contributed to this steepening effect (fancy jargon for 10yr yields moving higher faster than 2yr yields), but there are days where that momentum seems self-sustaining without any additional motivation. Today is just the latest example.
The following chart is from 12/24, but nothing has changed since then in the bigger picture.
Today's only relevant econ data is weekly jobless claims, and there's nothing interesting to report there. Claims came in just under forecast, and even in non-seasonally adjusted terms, they continue tracking with the recent reference years.
Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting right back to the messaging that's been in force for most of the month. Specifically, the path of least resistance is for longer term rates to move higher at a faster pace than short term rates. Things like the jobs report early in the month or the Fed announcement last week have contributed to this steepening effect (fancy jargon for 10yr yields moving higher faster than 2yr yields), but there are days where that momentum seems self-sustaining without any additional motivation. Today is just the latest example.
The following chart is from 12/24, but nothing has changed since then in the bigger picture.
Today's only relevant econ data is weekly jobless claims, and there's nothing interesting to report there. Claims came in just under forecast, and even in non-seasonally adjusted terms, they continue tracking with the recent reference years.