MBS & US Treasury Markets
10/16 2:15:16PM EST : Delayed Data

Starting around 12:15pm ET and accelerating quickly at 12:25pm, bonds began a sharp rally, led quite clearly by the short end of the yield curve and Fed Funds Futures. In this short time, year-end Fed rate expectations dropped from 3.60 to 3.56.  That may not sound like a lot, but it's the biggest move over such a short time window in over a month.

10yr yields are now down 4bps at 3.987 and MBS are up 3 ticks (.09).  We'll circle back if we get clarity on the underlying mover.  To be sure though, it is not a currently published news article or anything else on the normal beaten path (not yet anyway).

08:59 AM

Slightly stronger overnight and limited reaction to Philly Fed.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.016

09:11 AM

Quick reversal after 10s hit 4.0%.  Now up half a bp to 4.034.  MBS down a quick 3 ticks (.09) and just over an eighth from AM highs.

11:43 AM

Bouncing back a bit now.  MBS unchanged and 10yr down nearly 1bp at 4.019

01:12 PM

Big mystery rally from 12:15 to 12:45.  10yr down 3.8bps at 3.991.  MBS up and eighth.