Highest Yields in 3 Weeks as US Shuns Iran Proposal
Highest Yields in 3 Weeks as US Shuns Iran Proposal
Bonds sold off slowly and steadily overnight, largely tracing a similarly steady rise in oil prices. The latter is most easily attributed to reports that Trump is not happy with the latest Iran peace proposal although those reports stopped short of saying the proposal was flat-out rejected. There was additional volatility in oil prices surrounding news that the UAE is pulling out of OPEC, but that mostly resolved with oil moving off the highs (more competition, less supply throttling expected). Most recently a decent showing in Consumer Confidence is keeping bonds in a defensive stance.
Modestly weaker overnight. 10yr up 2bps at 4.362 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).
MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359
Modest Weakness, But Range Persists
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 28 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 39.25K | 54.75K | ||
| 9:00AM | Feb Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Feb | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 9:00AM | Feb FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Feb | 0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 9:00AM | Feb FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Feb | 1.7% | 1.6% | |
| 9:00AM | Feb CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Feb | 0.4% | -0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Apr | 92.8 | 89 | 91.8 |
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.103% | 0.115% | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 30 | |||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| Wednesday, Apr 29 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/24 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/24 | 303.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/24 MBA Refi Index | Apr/24 | 1023.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/24 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/24 | 175.6 | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Building Permits (ml) | Mar | 1.39M | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Housing starts number mm (ml) | Mar | 1.40M | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Core CapEx (%) | Mar | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Durable goods (%) | Mar | 0.5% | -1.4% | |
| 10:30AM | Apr/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/24 | 1.925M | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
