Owner/Broker
Great American Lending LLC
License:
MLO-4493
Company-201546

Et Tu, S&P PMI?

Et Tu, S&P PMI?

Little has changed between yesterday's close and this morning's early trading. 10yr yields are still several bps under 5%. MBS are still effectively at the highest levels in a month.  Tech isn't happy, with futures hugging yesterday's lows ahead of the open. One difference, however, is that we'll get a piece of economic data this morning that had a shockingly big impact on bonds when it came out last month: S&P PMIs. We're still incredulous about the 9/23 sell-off being driven by S&P PMIs, but we haven't seen a better explanation. That said, the jury's out as to whether that's a one-off. It would be very interesting if today's numbers (due out at 9:45 ET) are far from forecast, because whether they're better or worse, we'd definitely be learning something new. 

Latest Video Analysis

Tech Tanks and Bonds Pick Up The Slack

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
99.41
-0.17 
10YR TREASURY
4.987
+0.034 
10/23/2026 10:25AM EST
Here's your obligatory daily heads-up that MBS have dropped just over an eighth of a point from AM highs (frequent occurrence of late).  Very few lenders--if any--will see this as grounds for a negative reprice. It depends heavily on timing of the initial rate sheet (earlier lenders are at more risk), and only the jumpiest of the jumpy lenders would even be considering it. Bonds already look to be finding their footing, so it's entirely possible that this weakness ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.33%
+0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.98%
+0.02% 
10/23/2026
Interest rates continue taking cues from the market rethinking the pace of AI-related growth/spending. Last week's focus was on Coreweave and a few other companies who saw their cost of financing rapidly increase--a sign that investors were starting to worry about future return of capital. One remedy for such worries is to shift money into the safest parts of the bond market such as US Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds. As demand for those bonds increases, rates fall. &...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 23
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Composite PMI Oct 57.6 58.4
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI Oct 56.0 55.5 55.9
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Services PMI Oct 57.9 58 58.8
10:00AM Oct U Mich conditions Oct 46.7 44.7 50.9
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Oct 4.7% 4.7% 4.6%
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Oct 3.5% 3.5% 3.4%
10:00AM Oct Consumer Sentiment (ip) Oct 48.0 46.3 48.1
Monday, Oct 26
Owner/Broker
Great American Lending LLC
License:
MLO-4493
Company-201546