Owner/Broker
Great American Lending LLC
License:
MLO-4493
Company-201546

Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month

Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month

Bonds improved only moderately on Tuesday in a move that's just as easily chalked up to random holiday-week volatility as any of the day's data/events.  If we're determined to give credit to particulars, we can cite things like the 13.5k decline in weekly ADP payrolls, or the market's favorable reaction to rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner to be the next Fed Chair (Hasset is assumed to be extremely dovish). Most notably, bonds took no damage from another day of upward momentum in stock prices. Yields closed out with 10s right at 4.0%--the best end of day marks since the day before the October 29th Fed announcement (6th lowest close in more than a year).

Market Movement Recap
08:35 AM

Lots of data but no reaction.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.02

10:04 AM

holding best levels after more data. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.005

12:22 PM

Rates rallying on Hassett Fed Chair rumors. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 3.993

04:24 PM

Heading out with MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.001

Latest Video Analysis

Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.87 -0.02 10YR 4.007% +0.011% 11/26/2025 3:38AM EST
ADP's weekly employment report showed another contraction at -13.5k, but unlike last week, no one seems to care. We also got the delayed release of Retail Sales with a notably weak -0.1 vs 0.3 control group, and backlogged PPI that was just a hair cooler than expected. There too, zero bond market reaction. Thanksgiving week trading vibes are in full effect.  Fortunately, the trading that immediately preceded the data was moderately stronger, leaving MBS to start the day ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.20% -0.12% 15YR Fixed 5.75% -0.05% 11/25/2025
Mortgage rates moved nicely lower on Tuesday with the average lender very close to the 2025 lows seen in late October. These levels are effectively right in line with the lowest since late 2022. If today's drop seems abrupt, that's because it is. In fact, it's a bigger drop than the underlying bond market justifies. There's a reason for this and we covered it in detail back in September: Why Rates Seem to Drop More Quickly as They Approach Certain Thresholds. Rather th...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Nov 26
7:00AM Nov/21 MBA Refi Index Nov/21 1156.8
7:00AM Nov/21 Mortgage Market Index Nov/21 316.9
7:00AM Nov/21 MBA Purchase Index Nov/21 168.7
8:30AM Sep Core CapEx (%) Sep 0.6%
8:30AM Sep Durable goods (%) Sep 0.3% 2.9%
8:30AM Q3 GDP deflator (%) Q3 2.8% 2.1%
8:30AM Q3 GDP (%) Q3 3% 3.8%
8:30AM Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) Q3 7.5%
8:30AM Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q3 2.9% 2.6%
8:30AM Nov/15 Continued Claims (k) Nov/15 1974K
8:30AM Nov/22 Jobless Claims (k) Nov/22 225K 220K
9:45AM Nov Chicago PMI Nov 44.3 43.8
10:30AM Nov/21 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Nov/21 -1.3M -3.426M
11:30AM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
Thursday, Nov 27
12:00AM Thanksgiving Day
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week marked the return of delayed economic data from the government shutdown. Specifically, we received the important jobs report that was set to come out in early October. While this is September's data, and thus a bit stale, it was nonetheless responsible for the biggest volume spike in the bond market since the last Fed meeting. Such is the power of the jobs report relative to other econom... READ MORE
Owner/Broker
Great American Lending LLC
License:
MLO-4493
Company-201546