Starting Out Weaker vs 5pm or Stronger vs 3pm
Starting Out Weaker vs 5pm or Stronger vs 3pm
One major milestone in anyone's market-watching journey is when they learn that "the close" (close of business, closing bell, etc.) means different things to different people. If we consider electronic futures trading or cash trading in overseas markets, bonds are only really closed for 2 hours a day anyway. But the market needs a standardized time to mark the day's final prices/yields. For most, that's 3pm ET for Treasuries. For others, it's 5pm ET or even 4:45pm ET. Why talk about this now? Simply put, if you join "Club 3pm," then bonds are stronger to start the day despite being weaker vs 5pm. None of the above is much more than market-watching trivia, but if you ever see commentary referencing strength or weakness vs the close in a way that doesn't align with what you're seeing, this may be why.
Weaker overnight vs Monday's late-day rally levels. Stronger vs 3pm close. 10yr at 4.124. MBS down 19bps from 5pm, but up a few bps vs 3pm.
MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.12
Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Mar 10 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Feb NFIB Business Optimism Index | Feb | 98.8 | 99.7 | 99.3 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 15.5K | 12.75K | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Feb | 1.7% | -5.9% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Existing home sales (ml) | Feb | 4.09M | 3.89M | 3.91M |
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| Wednesday, Mar 11 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/06 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/06 | 158.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/06 MBA Refi Index | Mar/06 | 1637.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/06 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/06 | 377.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 2.4% | 2.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 2.5% | 2.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/06 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/06 | 3.475M | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | Feb Federal budget (bl) | Feb | $-75.85B | $-95B | |
