Bonds Fade De-Escalation Hopes
Bonds Fade De-Escalation Hopes
Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instead opted to stick with prevailing momentum (lower stocks, higher yields and oil prices). Part of the reason is that rather than a true ceasefire, the announcement merely delayed a major escalation from this weekend by 10 days. In addition other escalations continue to add up based on overnight reports. Bonds (and stocks and oil) are now in a pattern of fading (a trading term akin to "calling the bluff of") ostensibly hopeful de-escalation developments until they see something real and lasting.
Additional weakness overnight. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.452
Bonds turning green. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down almost 1bp at 4.412
That Escalated Quickly
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Mar 27 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 55.8 | 56.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 53.3 | 54 | 56.6 |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| 11:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 11:35AM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| Monday, Mar 30 | |||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $6.726 billion | |||
| 10:30AM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 4:00PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
