The Case For a Sideways Ceiling Continues to Build
The Case For a Sideways Ceiling Continues to Build
Granted, yields are only 3 days removed from hitting their highest levels in 5 months, but those levels weren't much worse than November 6th. If we treat this zone (call it 4.45% in 10yr yields, give or take 0.05%) as a potential ceiling, it received yet another vote of support with today's very calm trading near 4.42%. Geopolitical headlines were taken in stride (modest improvement) and 20yr auction results pushed back a bit in the afternoon. Most importantly (not really), bond traders managed to stay someone engaged despite every news story, email, TV segment, etc. focusing on NVIDIA earnings.
Slightly weaker overnight, but bouncing on geopolitical headlines. 10yr now unchanged at 4.397 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).
Some weakness after 20yr auction. 10yr up 1bps at 4.409. MBS down 1 tick (.01)
Heading out in uneventfully weaker territory. MBS down ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.414.
The Case For a Sideways Ceiling Continues to Build
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 21 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov/09 Continued Claims (ml) | Nov/09 | 1870K | 1873K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/16 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Nov/16 | 221K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov/16 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/16 | 220K | 217K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Prices Paid | Nov | 29.70 | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Index | Nov | 8 | 10.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Conditions | Nov | 36.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed CAPEX Index | Nov | 23.50 | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Employment | Nov | -2.2 | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed New Orders | Nov | 14.2 | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Oct | -0.3% | -0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Oct | -1% | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct Existing home sales (ml) | Oct | 3.93M | 3.84M | |
| 10:30AM | Nov/15 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Nov/15 | 42Bcf | ||
| 11:00AM | Nov KC Fed manufacturing | Nov | 0 | ||
| 11:00AM | Nov Kansas Fed Composite Index | Nov | -4 | ||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.460% | |||
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.510% | |||
| 12:00PM | Nov/20 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/20 | 5.99% | ||
| 12:00PM | Nov/20 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Nov/20 | 6.78% | ||
| 12:25PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 17 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 1.592% | |||
| 4:30PM | Nov/20 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Nov/20 | $6.96T | ||
| Friday, Nov 22 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Nov | 48.8 | 48.5 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 54.1 | ||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 55.2 | 55 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov U Mich conditions | Nov | 64.4 | 64.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Nov | 3.1% | 3% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Nov | 2.6% | 2.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Nov | 73.7 | 70.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Nov | 78.5 | 74.1 | |
| 1:00PM | Nov/22 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Nov/22 | 478 | ||
| 1:00PM | Nov/22 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Nov/22 | 584 | ||
