Stronger Start on Yet Another Peace Deal Teaser
Stronger Start on Yet Another Peace Deal Teaser
Bonds are rallying, and we have no objection to that. Reasons are simple and familiar enough that there's no sense in over-analyzing them. Newswires hit at 7am saying that Pakistan's defense minister said "things are shaping up in favor of peace" and that Pakistan's interior minister arrived in Tehran to discuss "matters of mutual interest." Oil prices and bond yields are well versed in cautious reactions to such headlines. They're not ever going to cause a massive reaction, but just like the last 40-50 examples, they're enough for a noticeable but modest shift in trading levels.
Issuance and Oil Strike Back
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Aug 11 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Jul NFIB Business Optimism Index | Jul | 99.8 | 97.5 | 97.4 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 8.25K | 15.0K | ||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $5.179 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Jul Existing home sales (ml) | Jul | 4.06M | 4.05M | 4.09M |
| 10:00AM | Jul Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Jul | -1.7% | -2.4% | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.670% | 3.640% | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| Wednesday, Aug 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Aug/07 MBA Refi Index | Aug/07 | 709.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Aug/07 Mortgage Market Index | Aug/07 | 240.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Aug/07 MBA Purchase Index | Aug/07 | 154.0 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 3.4% | 3.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 2.5% | 2.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 0.1% | -0.4% | |
| 10:30AM | Aug/07 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/07 | -0.5M | 2.479M | |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 42 | |||
| 2:00PM | Jul Federal budget (bl) | Jul | $-346B | $-120B | |
