Stronger Jobless Claims Leads to Early Selling
Stronger Jobless Claims Leads to Early Selling
The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond market. On occasions where the results fall far from the forecast, we tend to see moderate reactions. Odds increase when the headline breaks under the psychological level of 200k. With that, today's 198k print is having a bit of a negative impact on bonds at 8:30am, taking the market from roughly unchanged overnight levels into slightly weaker territory. A stronger Philly Fed index offered no solace.
First move is weaker after lower jobless claims. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.157
Lows of the day after rebounding into the 9:30am hour. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.159
MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.153
Weakest levels for Treasuries with 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.164. MBS still down 6 ticks (.19).
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jan 15 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Import prices mm (%) | Nov | 0.4% | -0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan NY Fed Manufacturing | Jan | 7.70 | 1 | -3.90 |
| 8:30AM | Jan/03 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/03 | 1884K | 1890K | 1914K |
| 8:30AM | Jan/10 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/10 | 198K | 215K | 208K |
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jan | 46.90 | 43.60 | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Business Index | Jan | 12.6 | -2 | -10.2 |
| 10:00AM | Nov Business Inventories (% ) | Nov | |||
| Friday, Jan 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 9:15AM | Dec Industrial Production (%) | Dec | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan NAHB housing market indx | Jan | 40 | 39 | |
