Waiting on ISM Services as Early Data Fails to Inspire
Waiting on ISM Services as Early Data Fails to Inspire
Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET). The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't react. 15 minutes later, Treasury released financing estimates for the quarter. These were as-expected and unchanged from the previous quarter, but Treasury noted that issuance would likely need to increase in fiscal year 2027. Higher issuance = higher rates, all else equal. This wasn't necessarily a surprise or even "new" info, but the reminder may have been worth a bit of selling at 8:30am. ISM remains the day's biggest source of potential volatility.
No major reaction to ADP data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.27
Weaker ISM Services and a slight rally in bonds. 10yr was 4.29, but now down to 4.272. MBS are 2 ticks (.06) off the lows, but still down 2 ticks on the day.
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 04 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/30 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/30 | 165.4 | 193.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/30 MBA Refi Index | Jan/30 | 1269.7 | 1332.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/30 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/30 | 330.8 | 363.3 | |
| 8:15AM | Jan ADP jobs (k) | Jan | 22K | 48K | 41K |
| 8:30AM | Jan Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jan | 14.9M | 15.5M | 16M |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.304 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Composite PMI | Jan | 53 | 52.8 | 52.7 |
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Services PMI | Jan | 52.7 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services Employment | Jan | 50.3 | 52.3 | 52.0 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services Prices | Jan | 66.6 | 64.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jan | 53.8 | 53.5 | 54.4 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Biz Activity | Jan | 57.4 | 56.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services New Orders | Jan | 53.1 | 57.9 | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/30 | -3.455M | -2M | -2.296M |
| 6:30PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 05 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Jan Challenger layoffs (k) | Jan | 35.553K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan/31 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/31 | 212K | 209K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/24 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/24 | 1850K | 1827K | |
| 10:50AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
