Weaker Start After Peace Deal Stalls
Weaker Start After Peace Deal Stalls
Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war, calling it "totally unacceptable." In response, Iran's foreign minister said it will never bow to foreign pressure. Adding fuel to the fire, Netanyahu said the war was not over and there was "more work to be done." When trading began late Sunday night, oil prices were roughly 5bps higher and 10yr yields rose 4bps to roughly 4.40%.
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, May 11 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Apr Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Apr | 0.2% | -3.6% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Existing home sales (ml) | Apr | 4.02M | 4.05M | 3.98M |
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $7.587 billion | |||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| Tuesday, May 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 3:15AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 6:00AM | Apr NFIB Business Optimism Index | Apr | 96.1 | 95.8 | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 39.25K | |||
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 3.7% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 2.7% | 2.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.630% | |||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 42 | |||
| 2:00PM | Apr Federal budget (bl) | Apr | $37.5B | $-164.1B | |
