Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend

Bonds/oil/stocks saw a small corrective bounce over the weekend after headlines called the peace process into question, but markets agree we're close enough to "on track" to avoid a major correction. Over the course of the day, bonds returned all the way to 'unchanged' even as oil prices stayed elevated vs Friday's close. It's hard to conceive that any counterparties in the war have the economic will to re-escalate at this point. Still, we don't know if the present 2 week ceasefire will give way to another ceasefire or something more concrete. The nature of that next step could determine the extent of the market's reaction. If economic data has any chance of moving the needle this week, Tuesday morning is when we'd find out (via Retail Sales for March).