War Headline Waiting Game is The Only Game in Town
War Headline Waiting Game is The Only Game in Town
Markets were largely flat overnight but volatility picked up just after 7am ET after headlines suggested US/Iran negotiations could resume as early as today. That was good for almost a $4 drop in oil and a 3bp drop in 10yr yields. Roughly half of that improvement was erased just over an hour later when additional news reiterated yesterday's contentious claim that Iran was attempting to replace its lead negotiator. There is no big ticket data on tap. The war headline waiting game is the only game in town.
Roughly unchanged after modest 2-way volatility. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.321
moving into weaker territory. MBS down 1 tick (.03) on the day and over an eighth from the early price plateau. 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.338
10yr at lows of day, down 2.2bps at 4.303. MBS up 6 ticks (.19). Move follows new of DOJ potentially dropping Powell case
Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Apr 24 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Apr | 49.8 | 47.6 | 53.3 |
| 10:00AM | Apr U Mich conditions | Apr | 52.5 | 50.1 | 55.8 |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Apr | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Apr | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Monday, Apr 27 | |||||
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $5.058 billion | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
