Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor
Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor
Sometimes, it's a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn't the most popular bond market benchmark. If it were, today's headline could reference "knockin' on 7's floor." Whether it's the 3.77 level in the 7yr Treasury yield or 4.0% in the 10yr, bonds are repeatedly approaching these "floor" levels over the past 2 weeks and today's installment was the best yet--even if only barely. Yet again, there's not much for the bond market to hang its hat on in terms of motivations this week if not for the general stock market malaise. Apart from that, one would have to venture a guess that bond traders are discounting economic fallout from trade/geopolitical uncertainty, but there's no objective way to measure those vibes in the short term.
Choppy and sideways overnight, but in a narrow range. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.039
MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.019
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.024
best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.01
Knockin' on 10yr Floor
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Feb 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 1833K | 1860K | 1869K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/21 | 212K | 215K | 206K |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| Friday, Feb 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jan PPI m/m (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PPI m/m (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan PPI y/y | Jan | 2.6% | 3% | |
| 9:45AM | Feb Chicago PMI | Feb | 52.8 | 54.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Construction spending (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Construction spending (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
