Dale R. Packer, MBA
Owner/Broker
Great American Lending LLC
M: (801) 391-6566
GreatAmericanLending.us
3918 Badger Ct.
Heber City Utah 84032
License:
MLO-4493
Company-201546

Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch

Friday, July 10, 2026

Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch

Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr yields down 3bps to 4.54+.  While that adds some emphasis to the rejection of a technical breakout above 4.59%, we can't really conclude that it happened for any bond-specific reasons. In fact, we're forced to conclude that bonds are on auto-pilot for the most part and that oil prices are the key input for now. As was the case in June, we know this correlation isn't permanent, but it's been highly reliable during this resurgence of U.S./Iran tensions.

Latest Video Analysis

Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.74
+0.05 
10YR TREASURY
4.538
-0.016 
7/10/2026 7:25AM EST
MBS Morning: Oil and Yields Starting Out Slightly Lower
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanation (i.e. we're close enough to unchanged to say "nothing new is happening"). But given the recent resurgence of correlation between bonds and oil prices, that's probably today's warm bowl of porridge considering the almost 100% directional alignment overnight. Finally, the ...   READ MORE
Alert:
Steady Selling; New Lows, But Limited Reprice Risk For Now
MBS Morning:
Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.65%
-0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.20%
-0.02% 
7/9/2026
Rates Recover Modestly
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lowe...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 10
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
Monday, Jul 13
2:00PM Jun Federal budget (bl) Jun $-293B
Dale R. Packer, MBA
Owner/Broker
Great American Lending LLC
M: (801) 391-6566
GreatAmericanLending.us
3918 Badger Ct.
Heber City Utah 84032
License:
MLO-4493
Company-201546
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.