Decent Start After PCE Comes in On-Target
Decent Start After PCE Comes in On-Target
The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it's more thorough and has stronger implications for Fed policy. Traders were apparently braced for today's number to be a bit hotter. Bonds rallied moderately after core monthly PCE came in as-expected at 0.3%. Annual inflation is running at 4.1% at the headline level, and 3.4% at the core level (both in line with expectations. Bonds were a few bps higher in yield before the data and are now a few bps lower heading into the 9am hour.
Quarterly Rebalancing Driving Bond Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jun 25 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun/13 Continued Claims (k) | Jun/13 | 1821K | 1800K | 1810K |
| 8:30AM | Jun/20 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/20 | 215K | 225K | 226K |
| 8:30AM | May PCE prices (m/m) (%) | May | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Corporate profits (% ) | Q1 | 0.5% | -0.4% | 5.7% |
| 8:30AM | May PCE (y/y) (%) | May | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| 8:30AM | May Durable goods (%) | May | -4.5% | -4.5% | 7.9% |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE (y/y) (%) | May | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | May Core CapEx (%) | May | 1.6% | 0.6% | -1.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q1 | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE (m/m) (%) | May | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q1 | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 3:40PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 3:40PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| Friday, Jun 26 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Jun U Mich conditions | Jun | 48.9 | 45.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jun | 50 | 44.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jun | 3.4% | 3.9% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jun | 4.6% | 4.8% | |
| 10:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
