Today's Data is Proving Less Tradeable, But Doing No Harm
Today's Data is Proving Less Tradeable, But Doing No Harm
10yr Treasury futures volumes spiked about 5 times higher in the 2 minutes following yesterday's CPI than in the 2 minutes following this morning's PPI/Retail Sales combo. Annual PPI was the highest since July with headline and core both at 3.0%. But November's results were lower than expected (core m/m at 0.0 vs 0.2). It was a big upward revision to September that caused the uptick in the annual number. Retail sales came out a bit stronger at the headline level, but the core was as-expected and the previous month's core was revised down 0.2%. All told, there's no obviously bad news for bonds here and yields are unchanged to slightly lower so far.
No major reaction to AM econ data. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.165
Best levels of the day with MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.138
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jan 14 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/09 MBA Refi Index | Jan/09 | 1313.1 | 937 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/09 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/09 | 184.6 | 159.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/09 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/09 | 348 | 270.8 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov PPI YoY | Nov | 3% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Nov | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Nov | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Producer Prices (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales (%) | Nov | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Nov | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| 8:30AM | Oct PPI YoY | Oct | 2.8% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Producer Prices (%) | Oct | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Business Inventories (% ) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec Existing home sales (ml) | Dec | 4.35M | 4.21M | 4.13M |
| 10:00AM | Dec Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Dec | 5.1% | 0.5% | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/09 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/09 | 3.391M | -2.2M | -3.831M |
| Thursday, Jan 15 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jan | 43.60 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan NY Fed Manufacturing | Jan | 1 | -3.90 | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/03 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/03 | 1890K | 1914K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/10 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/10 | 215K | 208K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Business Index | Jan | -2 | -10.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Business Inventories (% ) | Nov | |||
