Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers
Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers
Thursday's quarterly PCE numbers were much higher than expected. That meant an increased risk that Friday's monthly numbers would follow suit. While today's PCE was higher than expected in places, the important month-over-month core PCE was in line with expectations (but only because last month was revised higher). In short, inflation is still higher than the Fed wants it and higher than the market expected, but not quite as high as yesterday's report suggested--at least not for the month of March (Jan and Feb, however, were even higher than the market previously traded). There was a moderately good rally after the data and then a sideways grind in the PM hours with yields remaining higher than they were before all this fun began on Thursday morning.
Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Friday, Apr 26 | |||||
8:30AM | Mar Personal Income (%) | Mar | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
8:30AM | Mar Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Mar | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
8:30AM | Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
8:30AM | Mar PCE (y/y) (%) | Mar | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
8:30AM | Mar Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Mar | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
8:30AM | Mar PCE price index mm (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Apr | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% |
10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Apr | 3% | 3% | 2.8% |
10:00AM | Apr Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Apr | 76 | 77 | 77.4 |
10:00AM | Apr U Mich conditions | Apr | 79.0 | 79.3 | 82.5 |
10:00AM | Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Apr | 77.2 | 77.8 | 79.4 |
1:00PM | Apr/26 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Apr/26 | 506 | 511 | |
1:00PM | Apr/26 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Apr/26 | 613 | 619 | |
Monday, Apr 29 | |||||
10:30AM | Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | Apr | -14.4 | ||
11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 5.160% | |||
11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 5.255% | |||
3:00PM | Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (%) |