More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims?

More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims?

Bonds have been trending gently stronger after last week's CPI numbers, which is notable considering the headwinds presented by Tuesday's Retail Sales.  Wednesday's data didn't suggest a recovery from overnight weakness, but we got one nonetheless--perhaps with some help from Fed speakers adding to the sense of a September rate cut. While the modestly bullish bias has been able to defy the data seen so far, the Fed's focus on the labor market may mean that Thursday's Jobless Claims number is a better headliner for the week than Retail Sales.  After all, this is the installment that lines up with survey week for the forthcoming jobs report.  

Market Movement Recap
08:53 AM

Initial gains after Jobless Claims data, but pulling back a bit now.  10yr up over 2bps at 4.18+.  MBS down 3 ticks (0.09)

11:05 AM

Back into positive territory in MBS, up 1 tick (.03).  10yr still up 1.2bps at 4.17, but well off the highs.

Latest Video Analysis

Little-Changed, But That's a Victory

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.78 +0.02 10YR 4.166% +0.009% 7/18/2024 11:26AM EST
Jobless Claims 243k vs 230k f'cast, 223k f'cast Continued Claims 1867k vs 1860k f'cast, 1847k prev Philly Fed Index 13.9 vs 2.9 f'cast, 1.3 prev Philly Fed Prices Paid 19.8 vs 22.5 prev A mixed bag of data in the 8:30am time slot, but as we were expecting/hoping, the Jobless Claims data is carrying more weight than Philly Fed.  That said, if Philly Fed had been weaker, we might be seeing a better response.  ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.83% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.32% +0.02% 7/17/2024
Despite an active calendar of events that had the potential to cause volatility, average mortgage rates managed to remain unchanged in the morning and to move slightly lower in the afternoon.  Last Thursday's inflation data helped 30yr fixed rates drop to 5 month lows and there hasn't been much movement since then. Technically, today's rates aren't quite back to Monday's levels, but the average borrower would be seeing the same note rate in either case.  The onl...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jul 18
8:30AM Jul/13 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) Jul/13 234.75K 233.5K
8:30AM Jul/13 Jobless Claims (k) Jul/13 243K 230K 222K
8:30AM Jul/06 Continued Claims (ml) Jul/06 1867K 1860K 1852K
8:30AM Jul Philly Fed Business Conditions Jul 38.7 13.8
8:30AM Jul Philly Fed New Orders Jul 20.7 -2.2
8:30AM Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid Jul 19.80 22.50
8:30AM Jul Philly Fed CAPEX Index Jul 7.40 12.10
8:30AM Jul Philly Fed Employment Jul 15.2 -2.5
8:30AM Jul Philly Fed Business Index Jul 13.9 2.9 1.3
10:00AM Jun CB Leading Index MoM (%) Jun -0.2% -0.3% -0.5%
10:30AM Jul/12 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf Jul/12 10B 28Bcf 65Bcf
11:30AM 8-Week Bill Auction 5.260%
11:30AM 4-Week Bill Auction 5.270%
12:00PM Jul/17 15-Year Mortgage Rate Jul/17 6.17%
12:00PM Jul/17 30-Year Mortgage Rate Jul/17 6.89%
1:00PM 10-Year TIPS Auction 2.184%
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 19
1:45PM Fed Logan Speech
1:45PM Fed Logan Speech
4:00PM May Net Long-Term Flows, excluding swaps (TIC data) (bl) May $98.4B $123.1B
4:00PM May Overall net capital flows (TIC Data) (bl) May $66.2B
4:00PM May Foreign Buying, Bonds (TIC Data) (bl) May $75B
4:30PM Jul/17 Central Bank Balance Sheet Jul/17 $7.22T
6:05PM Fed Daly Speech
7:30PM Fed Bowman Speech
7:45PM Fed Bowman Speech
Friday, Jul 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
10:40AM Fed Williams Speech
12:45PM Fed Bostic Speech
1:00PM Jul/19 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Jul/19 478
1:00PM Jul/19 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Jul/19 584
1:00PM Fed Bostic Speech
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There was a lot riding on this week's economic data and it delivered in a big way.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has had the biggest influence on interest rates of any of the scheduled monthly economic reports, and for good reason. It is one of the two biggest and most detailed inflation reports on any given month, and it comes out about 2 weeks before the other one. That's incredibly im... READ MORE