Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card
Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card
The rescheduled release of the September jobs report played out exactly as we expected in terms of bond market impact. Volumes surged to the highest levels since the late October Fed announcement and bonds managed a clear response in spite of arguably mixed results. That said, the response was still logical given the Fed's stated preference for the unemployment rate over the payroll count. One could imagine an even more decisive rally if NFP was low or negative (or if the unemployment rate was another 0.1% higher). The AM rally may have fizzled out by 10:30am if not for another sizeable sell-off in stocks. This is a bit of a wild card going forward (i.e. we have to worry that a big correction in stocks could push yields higher).
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.121
Best levels of the day with MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.103
MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.105
Bonds Hold Decent Gains, But With How Much Help From Stocks?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Sep/20 Continued Claims (k) | Sep/20 | 1921K | 1930K | 1926K |
| 8:30AM | Sep/27 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/27 | 224K | 223K | 218K |
| 8:30AM | Sep Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Sep | 119K | 50K | 22K |
| 8:30AM | Sep Participation Rate | Sep | 62.4% | 62.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Unemployment rate mm (%) | Sep | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Average earnings mm (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Oct/04 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/04 | 235K | 227K | 224K |
| 8:30AM | Sep/27 Continued Claims (k) | Sep/27 | 1929K | 1930K | 1921K |
| 8:30AM | Oct/04 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/04 | 1928K | 1929K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/11 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/11 | 220K | 235K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/25 | 220K | 232K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/25 | 1964K | 1957K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/01 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/01 | 229K | 220K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/01 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/01 | 1946K | 1964K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/08 | 228K | 229K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/15 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/15 | 220K | 228K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Index | Nov | -1.7 | -3.1 | -12.8 |
| 8:30AM | Nov/08 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/08 | 1974K | 1946K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Prices Paid | Nov | 56.10 | 49.20 | |
| 8:45AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Oct Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Oct | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Existing home sales (ml) | Oct | 4.1M | 4.08M | 4.06M |
| 11:00AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 12:40PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 19 | |||
| 1:40PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| Friday, Nov 21 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 8:45AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 54.5 | 54.6 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Nov | 52 | 52.5 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 54.6 | 54.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Aug | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Nov | 3.6% | 3.9% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov U Mich conditions | Nov | 52.3 | 58.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Nov | 50.5 | 53.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Nov | 4.7% | 4.6% | |
