More Losses After Blockade Extension News
More Losses After Blockade Extension News
Last night's key news on the war involved reports of Trump telling aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The free flow of oil through Hormuz is the key market mover in this war, so it's no surprise to see oil prices lurch higher in response. Bond yields followed but have managed to hold under yesterday morning's highs so far. This morning's econ data definitely isn't rushing to help with Durable goods coming in much higher than expected. Thankfully, the reaction added less than 1bp of losses in 10yr yields. MBS charts make it seem like the response there was bigger, but that had more to do with typical early-session illiquidity specific to MBS.
weaker overnight and modest additional selling after 830am data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.369
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 29 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/24 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/24 | 298.5 | 303.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/24 MBA Refi Index | Apr/24 | 977.9 | 1023.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/24 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/24 | 177.7 | 175.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Building Permits (ml) | Mar | 1.372M | 1.39M | 1.538M |
| 8:30AM | Mar Housing starts number mm (ml) | Mar | 1.502M | 1.40M | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core CapEx (%) | Mar | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Durable goods (%) | Mar | 0.8% | 0.5% | -1.4% |
| 10:30AM | Apr/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/24 | 0.3M | 1.925M | |
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/25 | 215K | 214K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr/18 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/18 | 1820K | 1821K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar PCE (y/y) (%) | Mar | 3.5% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Employment costs (%) | Q1 | 0.8% | 0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 0.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Mar | 3.2% | 3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q1 | 2.9% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 2.3% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q1 | 4.1% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
| 9:45AM | Apr Chicago PMI | Apr | 53 | 52.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Feb | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
