Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Because today was was a "Fed day" and because bonds hit their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement, we may look back on the selling and blame the Fed. In actuality, the Fed was only a small piece of the puzzle. Specifically, 10yr yields had already moved up from 4.34+ to 4.40 before the Fed announcement. At the 3pm CME close, there was only 1 more basis point of selling (4.41). The overnight/morning weakness was already covered in the morning commentary, but as a reminder, it had to do with the potential for a longer-term blockade of The Strait of Hormuz. There were no major issues with the Fed, but the market didn't like the fact that 3 dissenting voters preferred to abandon the vague reference to future rate cuts via the "additional adjustments" verbiage.
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 29 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/24 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/24 | 298.5 | 303.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/24 MBA Refi Index | Apr/24 | 977.9 | 1023.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/24 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/24 | 177.7 | 175.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Building Permits (ml) | Mar | 1.372M | 1.39M | 1.538M |
| 8:30AM | Mar Housing starts number mm (ml) | Mar | 1.502M | 1.40M | 1.356M |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core CapEx (%) | Mar | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Durable goods (%) | Mar | 0.8% | 0.5% | -1.4% |
| 10:30AM | Apr/24 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/24 | -6.233M | -0.2M | 1.925M |
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% | |
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| 2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/25 | 215K | 214K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr/18 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/18 | 1820K | 1821K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar PCE (y/y) (%) | Mar | 3.5% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Employment costs (%) | Q1 | 0.8% | 0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 0.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Mar | 3.2% | 3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q1 | 2.9% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 2.3% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q1 | 4.1% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
| 9:45AM | Apr Chicago PMI | Apr | 53 | 52.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Feb | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
