Owner/Broker
Great American Lending LLC
License:
MLO-4493
Company-201546

Waiting For Whatever's Next

Waiting For Whatever's Next

We find ourselves in a bit of a lull in the bond market this week, and we don't object! Yields aren't screaming back up toward recent highs. Nor are they extending last week's swift rally. Both would cause problems for different reasons. Consolidating last week's rally in this narrow, sideways pattern is arguably the very best thing that could have happened this week. Whatever happens next is likely to be driven by a combination of the evolving narrative on tech sector concerns, econ data, and the Fed policy stance (which is really just a function of the econ data). In general, it is the tech sector narrative that has kept us in this week's lull. There too, investors are waiting for whatever's next. 

Latest Video Analysis

Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
98.96
+0.10 
10YR TREASURY
5.097
-0.015 
10/21/2026 9:25AM EST
MBS are still technically up 1 tick (.03) on the day, but they're down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Unfortunately, those highs coincided with many early lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, reprices are already a consideration for the jumpy crowd.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.40%
-0.03% 
15YR Fixed
7.05%
-0.02% 
10/20/2026
Mortgage rates dropped 0.03% today on average leaving the top-tier 30yr fixed rate index at 7.40% vs 7.43% yesterday--the third lowest level in more than 3 weeks. As has been and continues to be the case, the lower rates seen since last Wednesday are primarily being driven by concerns about deleveraging and potential contagion in the AI sector. One of the most closely-watched bellwethers has been Coreweave where a sharp decline in stock prices and sharp increase in corpora...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Oct 21
7:00AM Oct/16 Mortgage Market Index Oct/16 188.6 199.2
7:00AM Oct/16 MBA Refi Index Oct/16 503.1 513.5
7:00AM Oct/16 MBA Purchase Index Oct/16 129.2 139.3
10:30AM Oct/16 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/16 -0.8M -8.557M
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
Thursday, Oct 22
8:30AM Oct/17 Jobless Claims (k) Oct/17 200K 199K
8:30AM Oct/10 Continued Claims (k) Oct/10 1720K 1710K
10:00AM Sep CB Leading Index MoM (%) Sep -0.1% -0.1%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 26
Owner/Broker
Great American Lending LLC
License:
MLO-4493
Company-201546