Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers

Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers

Thursday's quarterly PCE numbers were much higher than expected.  That meant an increased risk that Friday's monthly numbers would follow suit.  While today's PCE was higher than expected in places, the important month-over-month core PCE was in line with expectations (but only because last month was revised higher). In short, inflation is still higher than the Fed wants it and higher than the market expected, but not quite as high as yesterday's report suggested--at least not for the month of March (Jan and Feb, however, were even higher than the market previously traded). There was a moderately good rally after the data and then a sideways grind in the PM hours with yields remaining higher than they were before all this fun began on Thursday morning.

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Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0 99.37 +0.31 10YR 4.666% -0.038% 4/26/2024 5:00PM EST
WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric.  The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reconcile today's 0.3 vs 0.3 monthly core PCE result against yesterday's 3.7 vs 3.4 annual result.  Yesterday's GDP data included the Core PCE Price Index, which came in at 3.7% vs 3.4% forecast.  It suggested that today's Core PCE Price Index reported in the Incomes/Outlays report would also be higher than forecas...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.45% -0.07% 15YR Fixed 6.86% -0.05% 4/26/2024
As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected. Rates are driven by multiple factors.  At present, inflation is chief among those, followed by the economy.  In general, higher inflation and economic strength coincide with higher rates.   Inflation and economic data evolved in such a way as to offer some lig...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 26
8:30AM Mar Personal Income (%) Mar 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
8:30AM Mar Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) Mar 2.8% 2.6% 2.8%
8:30AM Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) Mar 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
8:30AM Mar PCE (y/y) (%) Mar 2.7% 2.6% 2.5%
8:30AM Mar Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) Mar 0.8% 0.6% 0.8%
8:30AM Mar PCE price index mm (%) Mar 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Apr 3.2% 3.1% 2.9%
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Apr 3% 3% 2.8%
10:00AM Apr Michigan Consumer Expectations Final Apr 76 77 77.4
10:00AM Apr U Mich conditions Apr 79.0 79.3 82.5
10:00AM Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) Apr 77.2 77.8 79.4
1:00PM Apr/26 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Apr/26 506 511
1:00PM Apr/26 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Apr/26 613 619
Monday, Apr 29
10:30AM Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Apr -14.4
11:30AM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 70
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 70
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 5.160%
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 5.255%
3:00PM Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (%)
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As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected. Rates are driven by multiple factors.  At present, inflation is chief among those, followed by the economy.  In general, higher inflation and economic strength coincide with higher rates.&nbs... READ MORE