Bonds had a significantly calmer day in terms of day-over-day change. In fact, by the 3pm close, both MBS and Treasuries were close enough to unchanged. There was a bit of intraday volatility that saw bonds attempt to stage a little rally only to give it all up by the noon hour--the latest reminder that we're dealing with some asymmetric risks over the next few weeks.
Initially weaker overnight, but back into positive territory by the open. 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.18 and 5.5 UMBS up 3 ticks (.09).
11:22 AM
Back to weakest levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr nearly unchanged at 4.199.
01:07 PM
Worst levels just after noon, but bouncing back a bit now. MBS up 1 tick (.03). 10yr unchanged at 4.202.
03:44 PM
Drifting sideways since last update. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.198
Lock / Float Considerations
While the bigger picture rate outlook remains data dependent (i.e. a super strong jobs report = higher rates and vice versa), consider the likelihood of significant election related volatility until further notice.
