Yes to the loan that unlocks the joy of home ownership.
Yes to the lending solution that meets every client’s unique needs and wants.
That’s why we dedicate our every resource to serve as your personal guide through the lending process, solving problems, building confidence. Aslan has access to every lending option leading to the purchase or refinance of a residential home loan.
This is more than work for us. It is our unique joy in this life to share our collective skill, creativity, and care to bring you and your family right to where you belong.
The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the principal component of the big jobs report) is 110k--not much of a downgrade from last month's 139k. The bond market has recently been trading as if it expects to see an even lower number--a fact that's not too surprising given the preponderance of other data that suggests a weaker labor market in June. The latest in that list was today's ADP employment report which completely whiffed (-35k vs 95k f'cast). Bonds initially rallied on that news, but didn't maintain the gains, possibly due to all of the preemptive rallying already in place over the past 2 weeks, and possibly because ADP is notorious for paradoxically diverging from NFP on any given month despite broad long-term correlation. Today's weakness was minimal in the bigger picture and could just as easily be viewed as part of a 2-day process of circling the wagons (pausing and modestly correcting a prevailing trend on the eve of high-consequence data).
slightly weaker overnight but erasing losses after ADP data--at least in the shorter end of the yield curve. MBS now unchanged. 10yr up 4bps at 4.279, but 2yr is down 1.7bps.
09:15 AM
Back down to weaker levels. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.292
12:46 PM
Holding at 5 ticks (.16) weaker in MBS. 10yr now up 6.4bps at 4.303
03:10 PM
Off the weakest levels in Treasuries with 10yr now up only 4.8bps at 4.288. MBS down an eighth.
Lock / Float Considerations
The past two trading sessions have effectively circled the wagons on the trail that has led 10yr yields from 4.4+ on June 20th to 4.2 yesterday morning. Even after accounting for the modest correction, there's still some asymmetric risk heading into Thursday's jobs report. Specifically, a purely as-expected result would still run the risk of pushing rates higher, all other things being equal. Either way, this is a high-consequence installment of the jobs report, with plenty of potential for a reaction in either direction.
Yes to the loan that unlocks the joy of home ownership.
Yes to the lending solution that meets every client’s unique needs and wants.
That’s why we dedicate our every resource to serve as your personal guide through the lending process, solving problems, building confidence. Aslan has access to every lending option leading to the purchase or refinance of a residential home loan.
This is more than work for us. It is our unique joy in this life to share our collective skill, creativity, and care to bring you and your family right to where you belong.
