Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
Mon, Mar 16 2026, 3:24 PM
MBS Recap
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:23 PM
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading session. Oil was down significantly and so were bond yields. The correlation was very strong after 4am ET with each major peak and valley aligning. Econ data was present, but not a relevant consideration for trading. Stocks were also part of the correlation game but in a perfectly inverted way (peak in oil/yields = valley in stock prices). In other words, both sides of the market remain transfixed by energy prices. This hasn't been the exclusive market mover in March, but it's definitely been the dominant consideration, and that was double true today.
Moderately stronger overnight with additional gains in early domestic trading. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.232
12:22 PM
MBS still up a quarter point and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.237
02:56 PM
Best levels of the day with MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr yields down 6bps at 4.218
Lock / Float Considerations
Volatility risk remains much higher than normal due to geopolitical uncertainty. The entire month of March has been bearish for rates so far. It makes sense to remain defensive until that bearish streak has clearly leveled off. This will take more than 2 green days to verify (note the false hope created by March 6th and 9th).
