While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding legislation today, the Bureau of Labor Stati...
Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week's Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed as a noisy outlier in a data set that is vol...
ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan)
48.1 vs -- f'cast, 44.9 prev
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
52.6 vs 48.5 f'cast, 47.9 prev
ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Jan)
59.0 vs 60.5 ...
PPI... The Producer Price Index. It sounds a lot like CPI because both are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they share lots of methodology and structure. Given that CPI has been re...
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clearly connected, but the selling didn't sta...
Continued Claims (Jan)/17
1,827K vs 1860K f'cast, 1849K prev
Jobless Claims (Jan)/24
209K vs 205K f'cast, 200K prev
10yr yields are up 2.2bps at 4.263 and MBS are d...
Newswires follow below.
Here's a link to the before and after.
The Fed upgraded econ activity to "solid" from "moderate." They also said unemployment showed signs of sta...
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have slowed this year, remained low, and the unemployment rate has edged up throu...
Wednesday brings 2026's first Fed announcement, but it's guaranteed to be one of the least interesting. For a start, this is one of 4 annual meetings without an economic projections update and th...
10yr yields just pushed up to new highs for the day, up almost 3bps overall at 4.241. MBS are now down 1 tick (.03) on the day and an eighth of a point from the 10:30am highs.
In rare sc...
There are few developments in bond market charts that can lead even fundamental analysts to acknowledge the technicals . One of the most common catalysts for this phenomenon is the simple range ...
This week's only marquee calendar event is Wednesday's Fed announcement, and it's unclear what the Fed could possibly do or say to inspire much of a reaction at this meeting. That leaves the...
Bonds have been losing ground gradually heading into the afternoon. Treasuries and MBS are just now inching to the weakest levels of the day.
That said, this is only 1.3bps higher on the...
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session. There were no notable spikes in volume or volatility--just a gradual grind that took 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower by 8am ET. Volume picked...
Bonds found a bid along with stocks yesterday afternoon after Trump announced a "framework of a deal" on Greenland. Markets were much less interested in U.S. access and more concerned with ...
With mortgage rates right where they were 2 weeks ago, things could be worse. But after rising 20bps from last week's lows, things could also certainly be better. A vast majority of recent ...
MBS hit their highs of the day around 10:45am after rising from the lows seen around 8:20am. That rally was nearly a quarter point. But since then, we've lost almost 6 ticks (.19).&nb...
As Trump's Greenland aspirations continue unabated, measurable fallout is increasing. Part of the strategy is increased tariffs. EU is also planning/threatening retaliatory tariffs as well as sus...
MBS are only 1 tick (.03) lower than they were at the time of the last alert, but negative reprices are a slightly stronger possibility now considering the selling trend in the broader bond marke...
MBS are quickly down an eighth of a point from intraday highs. Most lenders printed rate sheets at a time when levels were slightly lower, but the pace of the selling creates some neg...
Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There's no way to plan ahead for that eternal caveat, so w...
10yr yields are up 2.7bps on the day at 4.159 and MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) in total. Current levels for MBS aren't much lower than they were in the immediate wake of this morning's jobles...
The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond market. On occasions where the results fall f...
10yr Treasury futures volumes spiked about 5 times higher in the 2 minutes following yesterday's CPI than in the 2 minutes following this morning's PPI/Retail Sales combo. Annual PPI was the high...
10yr yields have inched into negative territory, up half a bp at 4.183 but not any higher than they were at the day's previous highs.
MBS have sold more steadily and are now at the lows ...
CPI came out just a bit lower than expected with the monthly core at 0.2 vs 0.3 and annual core at 2.6 vs 2.7. The unrounded numbers were closer to forecasts and headline inflation was unch...
While the broader bond market is relatively stable, MBS continue to slide this afternoon. 5.0 coupons are down more than 3/8ths on the day and nearly a quarter point from the AM price plate...
MBS are now down just over a quarter point on the day and at least 5 ticks (.16) from most lenders' rate sheet print times. Jumpier lenders could be considering negative reprices.
10yr yields ...
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's building renovations. Bond yields were slightl...
This is a heads-up alert that will require some analysis on your part if you choose to act on it.
MBS are still up 3 ticks (.09) on the day, but are down more than a quarter point from the mos...
On Thursday afternoon with less than an hour left to trade, Trump announced he would be directing his representatives to buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). No matter what one's pers...
