MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Stocks Save Bonds From Modest Losses - Thu, 8:25 PM

MBS Recap Stocks Save Bonds From Modest Losses MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:23 PM ...

Thu, 2:40 PM

Paradoxical Inflation Report Reaction, PPI Edition - Thu, 2:40 PM

Seemingly overnight (i.e. over the past 30 days when it comes to markets reacting to economic data), the CPI and PPI inflation numbers that normally impact bonds have been overlooked in favo...

Thu, 12:41 PM

Big Drop in Producer Prices. Mixed Reaction Due to PCE Implications - Thu, 12:41 PM

Monthly Core PPI -0.1 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.5 prev Yearly Core PPI 3.4 vs 3.5 f'cast, 3.8 prev Jobless Claims 220k vs 225k f'cast, 222 prev While a -0.1 vs...

Wed, 8:09 PM

Another Paradoxical Reaction to an Inflation Report - Wed, 8:09 PM

MBS Recap Another Paradoxical Reaction to an Inflation Report MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Wed, 3:48 PM

Why Aren't Bonds Happier About CPI? - Wed, 3:48 PM

Today's CPI came in lower than expected. That would normally help bonds rally, but they didn't seem too eager to do that. One explanation is that the components of CPI that have a bearing on PCE ...

Wed, 12:41 PM

Mixed Reaction After CPI Comes in Lower - Wed, 12:41 PM

Core M/M CPI 0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast. 0.5 prev unrounded 0.2266 Core Y/Y CPI 3.1 vs 3.2 f'cast, 3.3 prev While the upward revision to January (a whopping 0.5, m...

Tue, 7:56 PM

Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI - Tue, 7:56 PM

MBS Recap Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:55 PM ...

Tue, 6:26 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Tue, 6:26 PM

MBS are now down more than a quarter point on the day (10 ticks or 0.31) after headlines regarding truce talks between Ukraine and Russia. Most lenders are seeing at least an eighth of a po...

Tue, 4:52 PM

Increasingly Reluctant to Rally Without More Motivation - Tue, 4:52 PM

Bonds were initially stronger at the start of overnight trading in Asia, but began selling off at a fairly steady clip almost immediately. By the start of domestic trading, the weakness was...

Tue, 3:37 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Tue, 3:37 PM

Bonds traded two ways after the JOLTS data and new tariff headlines, but yields have been moving steadily higher since 10:40am, tracking a rebound in equities markets. 10yr yields are now up 4...

Tue, 2:06 PM

Weakest (Then Strongest) Levels After JOLTS Data and Tariff Headlines - Tue, 2:06 PM

Job Openings 7.74m vs 7.63m f'cast, 7.508m prev Job Quits (higher is worse for bonds) 3.266m vs 3.197m prev Although the JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover surv...

Mon, 7:44 PM

More Help From Stocks, But More Reluctance From Bonds - Mon, 7:44 PM

MBS Recap More Help From Stocks, But More Reluctance From Bonds MBS Recap Matthew ...

Mon, 2:27 PM

Bonds Shaking Off Last Week's Weakness as R Word Returns - Mon, 2:27 PM

Over the weekend, Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession this year. He replied that although he hates to predict such things, "there is a period of transition, because what we're doing i...

Fri, March 7, 9:03 PM

Bonds Give Up AM Gains After Powell Speech - Fri, March 7, 9:03 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Give Up AM Gains After Powell Speech MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Fri, March 7, 6:37 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Fri, March 7, 6:37 PM

Some lenders have already repriced for the worse, but there will likely be quite a few more as MBS are now down to new lows for the day. 5.5 coupons are roughly a quarter point below ...

Fri, March 7, 5:57 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Recent Highs - Fri, March 7, 5:57 PM

This may prove to be more of a "heads-up" than a true alert, but MBS are down an eighth of a point from the most recent price plateau from 11:20-12:20 ET. UMBS 5.0 coupons are down a bit mo...

Fri, March 7, 3:20 PM

Mixed Jobs Data Making For Slightly Stronger Start - Fri, March 7, 3:20 PM

Today's jobs report was a mixed bag with the most important number also being the most boring. Headline job creation came in at 151k vs 160k, which is so close as to not even matter. As a r...

Fri, March 7, 1:38 PM

NFP Very Close to Consensus. Bonds Sold Off But Are Bouncing Back - Fri, March 7, 1:38 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 151k vs 160k f'cast, 125k prev Unemployment Rate 4.1 vs 4.0 f'cast, 4.0 prev Participation Rate 62.4 vs 62.6 f'cast It appears that i...

Thu, March 6, 9:07 PM

Decent Recovery as Sentiment Swoons Ahead of Jobs Report - Thu, March 6, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Decent Recovery as Sentiment Swoons Ahead of Jobs Report MBS Recap Matth...

Thu, March 6, 4:40 PM

Stronger Data and Tariff Delay Causing Weakness - Thu, March 6, 4:40 PM

There are a few moving pieces to the bond market narrative on Thursday. The general backdrop consists of yield curve steepening (fancy words that mean 10yr yields are moving higher relative...

Thu, March 6, 3:44 PM

New Lows For MBS After Tariff Delay Comments - Thu, March 6, 3:44 PM

Commerce Secretary Lutnick said in an interview that Canada and Mexico tariff reprieve would include all products currently in USMCA (which is most of them). This basically kicks the can fo...

Thu, March 6, 1:48 PM

Losing Some Ground After Strong Jobless Claims Data - Thu, March 6, 1:48 PM

Jobless Claims 221k vs 235k f'cast, 242k prev Bonds were mixed overnight with longer-term Treasuries in weaker territory and shorter term Treasuries (and MBS) in better shape.&n...

Wed, March 5, 8:47 PM

2nd Straight Day of Losses. Blame Data or Stocks? - Wed, March 5, 8:47 PM

MBS Recap 2nd Straight Day of Losses. Blame Data or Stocks? MBS Recap Matthew Grah...

Wed, March 5, 7:11 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Wed, March 5, 7:11 PM

MBS are now down 3 ticks (.09) on the day and just over a quarter point from the AM highs that aligned with many lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are increasingly likel...

Wed, March 5, 5:10 PM

Mixed Data Adds Up to Mixed Start For Bonds - Wed, March 5, 5:10 PM

Wednesday marks the return of market-moving economic data after Tuesday's lull. ADP Employment was up first and it came out much weaker than expected. Bonds never like to read too much into...

Wed, March 5, 3:04 PM

Erasing Some Gains After ISM Data - Wed, March 5, 3:04 PM

ISM Services 53.5 vs 52.6 f'cast, 52.8 prev prices 62.6 vs 60.0 employment 53.9 vs 52.3 The reaction is fairly modest so far, but it has been good for nearly an eighth of a...

Wed, March 5, 1:58 PM

Modest Gains After ADP Data - Wed, March 5, 1:58 PM

ADP Employment 77k vs 140k f'cast, 186k prev The bond market has a hit and miss relationship with ADP data. Although it broadly correlates with nonfarm payrolls, traders have bee...

Tue, March 4, 9:19 PM

Winning Streak Finally Ends, But it Could Have Been Worse - Tue, March 4, 9:19 PM

MBS Recap Winning Streak Finally Ends, But it Could Have Been Worse MBS Recap Matt...

Tue, March 4, 7:15 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Tue, March 4, 7:15 PM

MBS are now down almost a quarter point from the highs in 5.5 coupons and almost 3/8ths in 5.0 coupons. 10yr yields are up 5.2bps at 4.207 in a move that largely matches the cadence of the ...

Tue, March 4, 5:26 PM

MBS Down About an Eighth From Highs - Tue, March 4, 5:26 PM

If bonds level off and reverse course, this may end up being more of a "heads-up" type of alert, but reprice risk can't be ruled out completely at the moment. Treasuries have been sellin...

Tue, March 4, 4:26 PM

Bonds Struggling to Hang With Stock Market Swoon - Tue, March 4, 4:26 PM

While much of the recent improvement in the bond market can be tied to various economic reports, there's been more than a normal amount of improvement due to " risk-off " trading. In other words,...

Mon, March 3, 9:03 PM

Bonds Start Week Off With a Bang - Mon, March 3, 9:03 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Start Week Off With a Bang MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:03 PM ...

Mon, March 3, 5:07 PM

ISM Data Makes For a Strong Start - Mon, March 3, 5:07 PM

Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory with most of the losses seen right at the start of the overnight session in Asia. With it being the start of a new month, the volatility i...

Mon, March 3, 3:16 PM

Erasing Overnight Weakness After ISM Data - Mon, March 3, 3:16 PM

ISM Manufacturing 50.3 vs 50.5 f'cast, 50.9 prev ISM Prices 62.4 vs 56.2 f'cast, 54.9 prev ISM Employment 47.6 vs 50.1 f'cast, 50.3 prev ISM New O...

Fri, February 28, 9:16 PM

Bonds End The Week and The Month at Best Levels - Fri, February 28, 9:16 PM

MBS Recap Bonds End The Week and The Month at Best Levels MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Fri, February 28, 5:05 PM

No Major Reaction to PCE Data - Fri, February 28, 5:05 PM

It's no secret that we don't view the PCE inflation data as being anywhere remotely as big of a market mover as CPI. Today's trading is adding another notch on that belt, but it's important...

Fri, February 28, 1:36 PM

PCE Prices Right in Line With Forecasts - Fri, February 28, 1:36 PM

Core PCE Price Index, MM 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Unrounded, .285 Core PCE Price Index, YY 2.6 vs 2.6 f'cast, 2.9 prev Bonds were clearly hoping for a slightl...

Thu, February 27, 9:14 PM

Trying to Shake Off Overnight Weakness After Mixed Bag of Data - Thu, February 27, 9:14 PM

MBS Recap Trying to Shake Off Overnight Weakness After Mixed Bag of Data MBS Recap ...

Thu, February 27, 5:30 PM

Trying to Shake Off Overnight Weakness After Mixed Bag of Data - Thu, February 27, 5:30 PM

As of yesterday afternoon, bonds could seemingly do no wrong this week. Every opportunity for traders to circle the wagons and push back against the persistent rally was instead met with mo...

Thu, February 27, 1:38 PM

Mixed Data; Mixed Reaction - Thu, February 27, 1:38 PM

GDP 2.3 vs 2.3 f'cast PCE Price Index revised up 0.2 Jobless Claims 242k vs 221k f'cast, 220k prev Durable Goods 3.1 vs 2.0 f'cast, -1.8 prev Co...

Wed, February 26, 9:28 PM

Bonds Can Seemingly Do No Wrong - Wed, February 26, 9:28 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Can Seemingly Do No Wrong MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:27 PM ...

Wed, February 26, 5:01 PM

Bonds Holding Recent Gains Despite Stock Market Bounce - Wed, February 26, 5:01 PM

While the economic calendar may look a little busy today, there are, once again, no big ticket market movers in play. The last time data had an impact was last week. Since then, the n...

Tue, February 25, 9:33 PM

Impressively Calm Rally Continues Amid General Growth Concerns - Tue, February 25, 9:33 PM

MBS Recap Impressively Calm Rally Continues Amid General Growth Concerns MBS Recap ...

Tue, February 25, 4:36 PM

Bonds Rallying Sharply. But Why? - Tue, February 25, 4:36 PM

They day begins with 10yr yields down more than 10bps and trading under 4.30% at times. MBS are up 3/8ths with 5.5 UMBS coupons getting close to par. All of this transpired without any big-...

Mon, February 24, 10:05 PM

Bonds Improved Throughout The Day, With and Without Stock Market Losses - Mon, February 24, 10:05 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Improved Throughout The Day, With and Without Stock Market Losses MBS Recap ...

Mon, February 24, 3:33 PM

Slow Start, No Data, But Holding Near 2025's Best Levels - Mon, February 24, 3:33 PM

After a strong finish last week, there was some natural risk that short-covering and position squaring added to the gains, thus increasing the chance of some weakness this morning. While that may...

Fri, February 21, 10:00 PM

Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week - Fri, February 21, 10:00 PM

MBS Recap Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:59 PM ...

Fri, February 21, 4:57 PM