The 9:30am NYSE open occasionally results in a pop of volume and volatility in the bond market and today is one of those occasions.
10yr yields are quickly up 2 bps to 4.359 and MBS are ...
Tonight brings 8pm ET deadline for Iran's response to U.S. demands (opening shipping channels among other things). If there's no response, Trump has threatened to attack critical infrastructure l...
Much of the international trading community remains on holiday today, making for lower volume and liquidity in the US. Bonds have managed to mostly shrug off Friday's stronger jobs report--a fa...
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering the even earlier-than-normal early close (12pm...
Average earnings mm (Mar)
0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.4% prev
Non Farm Payrolls (Mar)
178K vs 60K f'cast, -92K prev
Participation Rate (Mar)
61.9% vs -- f'cast, 62...
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer s...
MBS are now down just over an eighth of a point from the mid-day highs. Lenders who repriced for the better near the time of those highs could technically justify a negative reprice, but risk is ...
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning's data. Both ADP and Retail ...
TRUMP TO NEW YORK POST: MY MISSION WAS TO PREVENT IRAN FROM POSSESSING A NUCLEAR WEAPON, AND I SUCCEEDED
IRAN'S PRESIDENT PEZESHKIAN: WE'RE READY TO END WAR, BUT WANT GUARANTEES
This doesn'...
The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Markets rallied nearly as ...
MBS are still up 3/8ths on the day, but down roughly a quarter point from AM highs. Lenders who priced/repriced during those highs are increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices.&nbs...
Just a heads up, mainly for lenders who've already repriced for the better: MBS are still up almost half a point on the day, but they've fallen just over an eighth of a point from intraday highs....
There are three distinct reasons that could account for bonds paradoxically rallying overnight despite oil prices remaining high and an absence of meaningful de-escalation in the Iran war.
...
Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instead opted to stick with prevailing momentum (lo...
MBS are now down 14 ticks (.44) on the day and roughly a quarter point from the AM highs. 10yr yields are up 7bps at 4.402.
There is no individual, precipitous market mover. Oil, stocks,...
MBS have drifted lower by just over an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Because those highs coincided with some lenders' rate sheet print times, negative reprice risk cannot be ruled ou...
Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds into weaker territory. Said differently...
There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon). Yesterday's developments (Trump comments on...
Apparently, bonds aren't quite done responding to escalation/de-escalation headlines for the day, and the latest examples are having the biggest impact.
ISRAELI CHANNEL 12: ONE-MONTH CEA...
2yr Treasury auctions rarely hit the longer end of the bond market, but today's is an exception. Around the same time, there were also headlines regarding troop deployments to Iran.
MBS are no...
MBS are now down 3/8ths on the day and more than a quarter point from the AM highs. Lenders who are already out with rates will likely have already accounted for most of the weakness. So there's ...
Even though there were doubts about their scope and impact, yesterday morning's headlines introduced the prospect of some sort of ceasefire in the Iran war. Markets traded accordingly, including ...
As Iran pushes back on news regarding talks with the US, bonds are quickly correcting.
MBS are still up 5 ticks (.16) on the day but down almost 3/8ths from the highs.
Lenders who aggressiv...
Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. Then at 7:04am, newswires indicated "talks" betw...
One last alert for the road today. No sense in overdoing it, but it's worth noting that MBS are now at new lows with 5.0 coupons down nearly a full point on the day and 10yr yields up 14.2b...
Today is a bit unique in that bonds started weaker and have been falling steadily all day. Lender pricing strategies vary greatly in this conditions. Some will price in more weakness. Other...
In the space of 2 days, central banks have completely stolen the spotlight from energy prices, but they have relied on energy prices to do so. More simply put, markets had been following oil pric...
MBS are down 6 ticks on the day (.19) and roughly 6 ticks from the AM highs. Lenders who priced or repriced around the time of those highs could be considering negative reprices.
The ECB rate announcement and comments have been this morning's dark horse market mover. The initial reaction contributed to selling in Treasuries, but in the past hour, additional ECB comments h...
At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the "10yr vs oil price" chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy price spiral. But the correlation is spotty ...
MBS are now down 9 ticks (.28) and almost 6 ticks (.19) from some lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are becoming increasingly possible.
MBS are at the lows of the day, down 6 ticks (.19) overall and nearly an eighth of a point from the most recent highs. Reprice risk is limited unless we lost more ground from here.
10yr ...
If anything, bonds are slightly stronger than before the announcement, but volume and volatility are insanely low for a Fed day (this morning's PPI/Oil trade was much bigger). Dots were lit...
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. been little...
