FT is reporting Anthropic may not receive an "investment grade" rating after its forthcoming IPO. This would make AI-related financing more expensive and generally contribute to the "tech jitters...
MBS are down an eighth on the day and just over an eighth versus some lenders' rate sheet print times.
Reprice risk is minimal at this very moment, but would progressively increase if we...
Bonds were initially stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields briefly falling under 4.90%. The rally generally aligned with overnight losses in the stock market, at least at first. When...
Lenders who published rates between 9:30 and 10:15am ET are now seeing 6 ticks (.19) of weakness in MBS. Negative reprices are now a possibility for the jumpier among them. There is no new justif...
PCE inflation was almost perfectly in line with even the unrounded expectations. The monthly core number was 0.32 vs 0.34 (or .3 vs .3 on most econ calendars). Perhaps the modest miss helps expla...
MBS are back to their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement. The move has been relatively low in volume and fairly gradual. We continue to expect a far greater chance of actual vol...
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 10 – 0 2 vote: The Committee decided to raise maintain the target range for the federal fu...
Coreweave stock moved higher again overnight and Coreweave bond yields continued lower, with some issues now back to yields seen 2 weeks ago. Treasuries/MBS have been doing their best to hold sid...
Lenders who were out with rates before 10:15am are already seeing an eighth of a point of weakness. The jumpier crowd has occasionally been known to reprice in these situations.
"Neocloud" has entered the commentary. This is shorthand for the market segment in which Coreweave operates. Neocloud companies have been the epicenter of recent concerns in tech that have helped...
Bonds are technically just a hair stronger this morning, but in the slightly bigger picture, nothing has happened yet this week (not that we'd expect that to be the case before 10am on a Monday)....
Here's your obligatory daily heads-up that MBS have dropped just over an eighth of a point from AM highs (frequent occurrence of late).
Very few lenders--if any--will see this as grounds...
Little has changed between yesterday's close and this morning's early trading. 10yr yields are still several bps under 5%. MBS are still effectively at the highest levels in a month. Tech i...
There is very little negative reprice risk for the average lender as they're still not fully caught up with the improvements in MBS. But for those few lenders who have aggressively repriced for t...
Oil prices are up. Bond yields are down sharply. If this was early September, that wouldn't make sense. Bonds decoupled from the oil correlation on Fed week and then REALLY decoupled as stronger ...
After leveling off earlier, selling is resuming now with 10yr yields up a quick 2.6bps at 5.137 and MBS now down more than a quarter point from many lenders' rate sheet print times.
Nega...
MBS are still technically up 1 tick (.03) on the day, but they're down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Unfortunately, those highs coincided with many early lenders' rate sheet print times. As su...
We find ourselves in a bit of a lull in the bond market this week, and we don't object! Yields aren't screaming back up toward recent highs. Nor are they extending last week's swift rally. Both w...
Treasuries were at their best levels of the day at 10:30am ET, but are now at their worst levels with 10yr yields still down 1.3bps at 5.122.
MBS aren't yet back to the AM lows, but are off th...
The bond market continues to decide who it wants to be in Q4, 2026--the harbinger of inflation concerns, debt issuance and economic growth or a safe haven for cash being freed up by AI capex dele...
Negative reprice risk is now a consideration for most lenders and not just the jumpier "early crowd."
MBS are down 10 tick (.31) on the day and at least 5 ticks (.16) for almost any lend...
Bonds have been trending steadily weaker this morning. 10yr yields are up almost 5bps to 5.128 and MBS are down a quarter point on the day and just over an eighth from highs.
Because the highs...
Last week's most notable development was a flight to safety in the bond market precipitated by concerns about a shift in tech sector sentiment. The shift in question was mainly driven by Coreweav...
Selling continued after the last alert. Losses are driven by a big surge in oil prices. We're not seeing a compelling reason for that yet other than unconfirmed reports of some pipeline attack.
...
This is only a reprice alert for rate sheets that came out after 10am ET. Lenders who priced before then aren't seeing lower prices yet.
Those who repriced for the better or priced ...
The past two days saw a unique confluence of factors that led to a precipitous, unexpected, and fairly large rally in the bond market. The easiest scapegoat is the general notion of fear surround...
This is a heads-up for those of you with strong, initial rate sheets from lenders who are typically quick to reprice. MBS are now down more than a quarter point from early rate sheet print times....
Core PPI was up 0.7 vs 0.3 forecast this morning. That's something that would normally send yields much higher. But everything is different this morning. Bonds rallied sharply in the overnight se...
Unrounded core CPI came in at 0.335, which nearly rounds to 0.4% versus an expectations of 0.2%. This is a big surprise when it comes to inflation data, and it matters more at the moment gi...
Core CPI
0.335% vs 0.2 f'cast
Headline CPI
0.6 vs 0.6 f'cast
Not only was core CPI above forecast, but the unrounded number was pretty close to being rounded to 0.4...
Tuesday morning joins a fairly long list of trading days where overnight bond market movement cannot be cleanly connected to news headlines or econ data. With yields having recently pushed up to ...
We won't assume bonds are completely out of the woods today, but we've seen enough strength at this point to avoid panic.
The last alert mentioned bonds were already possibly starting to...
More of a heads-up alert than a dire warning.
Bonds have been selling slowly and steadily this morning. Just now, MBS hit levels that are an eighth of a point below some lenders' rate sheet pr...
After yesterday's nice comeback, here's how we're thinking about today. Fridays before 3-day weekends:
frequently see a move to the sidelines among certain investors. Traders who were tacti...
Bonds were initially moderately weaker this morning morning in a move that followed oil prices and hawkish Fed comments. Chris Waller said more hikes were needed due to a strong economy, persis...
