MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Bonds Selling After Warsh Speech - Fri, August 28, 2:12 PM

Warsh's speech is unequivocally hawkish at first glance and Fed Funds Futures are selling quickly. MBS are down a quick eighth of a point. Negative reprice risk could already be increasing.&...

Fri, August 28, 1:43 PM

Not The Payrolls You're Looking For - Fri, August 28, 1:43 PM

In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up another event that is almost guaranteed not t...

Thu, August 27, 8:25 PM

Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck - Thu, August 27, 8:25 PM

MBS Recap Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck MBS Recap Ma...

Thu, August 27, 6:00 PM

Treasuries at Weakest Levels. MBS an Eighth Off Highs - Thu, August 27, 6:00 PM

Treasuries have been under some increased pressure in the last 15 minutes and yields are now at the highs of the day. MBS have been outperforming but have also lost ground fairly steadily since j...

Thu, August 27, 2:16 PM

Counting Down to Warsh - Thu, August 27, 2:16 PM

While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing else on the calendar this week with any seri...

Wed, August 26, 8:23 PM

Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness - Wed, August 26, 8:23 PM

MBS Recap Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:23 P...

Wed, August 26, 5:35 PM

MBS Update:

Heads Up: Weakest Levels But 10yr Holding - Wed, August 26, 5:35 PM

There as a moment of volatility right after the 5yr Treasury auction, but both 5yr and 10yr Treasuries are holding in line with the AM highs. 5.5 MBS are another 1 tick (.03) lower than ...

Wed, August 26, 12:47 PM

Bonds Pouting After Higher PCE - Wed, August 26, 12:47 PM

To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notably 0.246%, so it nearly rounded up to 0.3 vs ...

Tue, August 25, 8:33 PM

Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes - Tue, August 25, 8:33 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:32 PM ...

Tue, August 25, 2:06 PM

Oil Down, Yields Down - Tue, August 25, 2:06 PM

No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an overnight drop in oil prices coincided perfec...

Mon, August 24, 8:56 PM

Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) - Mon, August 24, 8:56 PM

MBS Recap Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:56 PM ...

Mon, August 24, 3:13 PM

Slightly Stronger Start Mostly Due to Oil. Treasury News Fails to Inspire (Again) - Mon, August 24, 3:13 PM

Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-end buybacks. TGA is Treasury's bank account....

Fri, August 21, 7:36 PM

Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon - Fri, August 21, 7:36 PM

MBS Recap Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon MBS Recap Matt...

Fri, August 21, 5:52 PM

Slightly More Reprice Risk - Fri, August 21, 5:52 PM

Prices haven't changed much from the time of the first alert, but MBS have spent more time pushing the lows of the day. Treasuries are also suggesting a bit of extra weakness. 5.5 UMBS a...

Fri, August 21, 2:34 PM

MBS Down an Eighth - Fri, August 21, 2:34 PM

Bonds have been selling slowly and steadily for the past few hours despite the stronger start. UMBS 5.5 coupons just now ticked down an eighth of a point on the day. Incidentally, this is also an...

Fri, August 21, 1:29 PM

Summertime Data-Free Friday Mystery Box - Fri, August 21, 1:29 PM

Bonds were a hair stronger overnight and are now a hair weaker at 9:15am ET. They may flip back and forth a few more times before the close. Ultimately, data-free summertime Fridays are fairly ra...

Thu, August 20, 9:08 PM

Tune Out The Noise - Thu, August 20, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap Tune Out The Noise MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:08 PM Tune O...

Thu, August 20, 1:34 PM

Back on The Pain Wagon (Which Runs on Oil) - Thu, August 20, 1:34 PM

The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of the morning's attention, fuel prices guided ...

Wed, August 19, 8:18 PM

AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil - Wed, August 19, 8:18 PM

MBS Recap AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Wed, August 19, 5:17 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Wed, August 19, 5:17 PM

MBS are still an eighth of a point higher on the day, but down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Those highs happened fairly close to the earliest lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negativ...

Wed, August 19, 2:21 PM

Bonds Rally After Treasury Buyback Announcement (NOT QE) - Wed, August 19, 2:21 PM

At 8:30am, Treasury announced it would double the size of the existing buyback program from $2 to $4 billion for 10-30yr maturities. This sounds like a big deal, but it's only really a medium dea...

Tue, August 18, 8:25 PM

Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green - Tue, August 18, 8:25 PM

MBS Recap Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Tue, August 18, 2:26 PM

Weaker Start, But Traders Buying The Dip - Tue, August 18, 2:26 PM

Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technical ceilings along the way up from 4.0% 10yr y...

Mon, August 17, 7:00 PM

War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher - Mon, August 17, 7:00 PM

MBS Recap War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 1...

Mon, August 17, 5:32 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, August 17, 5:32 PM

Oil prices and bond yields are both at the highs of the day with 10yr yields up 2.5bps at 4.718%. MBS are also at the lows, down an eighth of a point on the day and an eighth of a point ...

Mon, August 17, 1:43 PM

Under Some Pressure For Usual Reasons - Mon, August 17, 1:43 PM

It's just another day in post-Iran-war 2026. As such, bonds are taking cues from fuel price volatility which is in turn taking cues from the latest war-related headlines. In this morning's instal...

Fri, August 14, 4:34 PM

Negative Reprices Slightly More Likely - Fri, August 14, 4:34 PM

MBS are down another few ticks and 10yr yields are pushing news highs for the day. The average lender is now seeing almost 6 ticks (.19) of weakness from morning rate sheet print times. That make...

Fri, August 14, 3:18 PM

MBS Now Down an Eighth From Some Rate Sheet Print Times - Fri, August 14, 3:18 PM

Bonds have been selling off slowly and steadily since the 8:30am econ data. UMBS 5.5 coupons are down an eighth of a point on the day and also versus the early lender rate sheet window (9:30-10am...

Fri, August 14, 2:01 PM

Good Luck Making Sense of Retail Sales Reaction - Fri, August 14, 2:01 PM

Based on a few research papers that have attempted to quantify the impact of various economic reports as well as the general consensus among economic calendar purveyors, Retail Sales is allegedly...

Thu, August 13, 9:10 PM

Solid Data-Driven Gains - Thu, August 13, 9:10 PM

MBS Recap Solid Data-Driven Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:09 PM S...

Thu, August 13, 5:13 PM

MBS Down 6 Ticks (.19) From Highs - Thu, August 13, 5:13 PM

MBS are still up more than a quarter point on the day (+ 9 ticks or .28), but down 6 ticks (.19) from the highs. Whether or not that creates reprice risk will depend on the lender in question.&nb...

Thu, August 13, 1:51 PM

Thank You PPI - Thu, August 13, 1:51 PM

If nothing else, this morning offers confirmation of just how nervous the market is about inflation. The producer price index barely beat its forecast (in fact y/y CORE PPI was on the screws), bu...

Wed, August 12, 9:10 PM

Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data - Wed, August 12, 9:10 PM

MBS Recap Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data MBS Recap Matthew Gra...

Wed, August 12, 6:30 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, August 12, 6:30 PM

Bonds just drifted to slightly weaker levels. MBS are still up 3 ticks on the day, but pushing into new lows. Previously, we were looking at an eighth point gap from AM highs. Now that's up...

Wed, August 12, 3:09 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Wed, August 12, 3:09 PM

10yr yields are still down 1.3bps on the day at 4.679 but that's up more than 3bps from the post-data lows. Selling has been fairly steady but accelerated a bit after the 9:30am NYSE open as a...

Wed, August 12, 1:44 PM

No Major Reaction to As-Expected CPI - Wed, August 12, 1:44 PM

It would have been hard for CPI to be any more boring. All key metrics came in perfectly in line with forecasts. Supercore (core minus housing), was 0.189, which is a monthly equivalent of "close...

Tue, August 11, 8:56 PM

Bonds Looking Somewhat Optimistic Ahead of CPI - Tue, August 11, 8:56 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Looking Somewhat Optimistic Ahead of CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Tue, August 11, 2:36 PM

Stronger Start on Yet Another Peace Deal Teaser - Tue, August 11, 2:36 PM

Bonds are rallying, and we have no objection to that. Reasons are simple and familiar enough that there's no sense in over-analyzing them. Newswires hit at 7am saying that Pakistan's defense mini...

Mon, August 10, 8:00 PM

Issuance and Oil Strike Back - Mon, August 10, 8:00 PM

MBS Recap Issuance and Oil Strike Back MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:59 PM ...

Mon, August 10, 7:18 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Just a Bit More - Mon, August 10, 7:18 PM

Several lenders have already repriced for the worse. Nothing much has changed since out last alert, but bonds are just a bit weaker, and additional lenders are slightly more likely to be consider...

Mon, August 10, 5:03 PM

MBS Down an Eighth Since 9:30am - Mon, August 10, 5:03 PM

Bonds have been gradually selling off all morning, but until now, not too much from rate sheet print times. If we use 9:30am as a baseline, 5.5 coupons are now down exactly an eighth of a point. ...

Mon, August 10, 2:32 PM

Another Week, Another Oil Price Pivot - Mon, August 10, 2:32 PM

Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other words, lower prices/yields for a few days fol...

Fri, August 7, 9:21 PM

Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless - Fri, August 7, 9:21 PM

MBS Recap Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless MBS Recap Matt...

Fri, August 7, 6:43 PM

Lows of the Day. Slightly More Reprice Risk - Fri, August 7, 6:43 PM

A small handful of lenders have already repriced. More may join them as Treasuries continue edging slightly higher and MBS nudge up against the lows of the day. Things have actually been almost p...

Fri, August 7, 3:19 PM

Down Almost an Eighth From Rate Sheet Times - Fri, August 7, 3:19 PM

Reprices aren't necessarily likely at the moment, but we're getting close to that being a possibility for the earlier lenders. 5.5 UMBS held a fairly narrow plateau during the prime time rate she...

Fri, August 7, 1:05 PM

Much Stronger Start After Negative NFP Print, But... - Fri, August 7, 1:05 PM

Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast. Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is pure rally fuel. Indeed, bonds are rally...

Thu, August 6, 7:05 PM

Almost Like Clockwork - Thu, August 6, 7:05 PM

MBS Recap Almost Like Clockwork MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2:33 PM Alm...

Thu, August 6, 4:22 PM