Weekly Newsletter Archive

Fri, March 7, 10:10 PM

The Secret Reason That Rates Bounced This Week - Fri, March 7, 10:10 PM

There's a lot for financial markets to digest at the moment. Over the past few weeks, the net effect of that digestion has been good for bonds/rates and bad for stocks. But the prevailing correla...

Fri, February 28, 10:07 PM

Mortgage Rates Closing in on 4 Month Lows - Fri, February 28, 10:07 PM

Rates have been almost perfectly consistent in moving lower since February 13th and broadly consistent since January 15th. There's one big reason for that and it's simpler than you might think. ...

Fri, February 21, 9:33 PM

Lowest Rates in 2 Months. Was it The Fed or Econ Data? - Fri, February 21, 9:33 PM

It ended up being another good week for rates with another Friday drop to the lowest levels in 2 months. Momentum shifted for the better after Wednesday's Fed Minutes but accelerated quickly afte...

Fri, February 14, 9:30 PM

The Unlikely Story of Mortgage Rates Falling to 2 Month Lows Despite Higher Inflation - Fri, February 14, 9:30 PM

The final two days of the present week weren't on many bingo cards as of Wednesday afternoon. At the time, rates were jumping higher in response to inflation data. That same morning, ...

Fri, February 7, 5:54 PM

Despite Apparent Volatility, Rates Have Been Surprisingly Calm - Fri, February 7, 5:54 PM

It would be more than fair to expect elevated market volatility based on the quantity and tone of recent news headlines. But the market remains more focused on the hard data. This isn't to say...

Fri, January 31, 9:32 PM

Bonds Brace For Tariff Impact, Just Like Last Time - Fri, January 31, 9:32 PM

Spoiler alert: no one really knows how tariffs are going to impact the market yet. Much is left to be decided, and the outcomes can vary depending on the details. Markets were certainly willin...

Fri, January 24, 11:01 PM

Can Trump Actually Force Rates to Move Lower? - Fri, January 24, 11:01 PM

It turned out to be an intensely boring week for mortgage rates. The average lender stayed right in line with last week until moving slightly higher on Thursday and slightly lower on Friday. ...

Fri, January 17, 11:23 PM

Rates Recover After Tame Inflation Data - Fri, January 17, 11:23 PM

Last week's big to-do was the jobs report, which sent rates sharply higher. This week's inflation data had a chance to add fuel to that fire or put it out. The inflation report in question was...

Fri, January 10, 10:39 PM

Highest Mortgage Rates in 7 Months After Upbeat Jobs Report - Fri, January 10, 10:39 PM

Mortgage rates weren't having a great week in the first place. As of Wednesday, the average lender was already up to the highest levels since June 2024. But up until that point, there...

Fri, January 3, 10:31 PM

Mortgage Rates' Holiday Break Ends With Next Week's Economic Data - Fri, January 3, 10:31 PM

Even as most of the world has spent the past two days thinking or saying "I can't believe it's 2025 already," mortgage rates won't get back from vacation until next week. They managed to ma...

Fri, December 27, 9:15 PM

Let's Try Something New For 2025 - Fri, December 27, 9:15 PM

"So long 2024. Don't let the door hit ya!" Or... "another year closer to turning a longer-term corner in the housing market." For better or worse, 2024 was a lot more like 2023 than most housing/...

Fri, December 20, 8:58 PM

Once Again, Mortgage Rates Shoot Higher After a Fed Rate Cut - Fri, December 20, 8:58 PM

"If anything on Fed day ends up having an impact on mortgage rates, it would have to be changes in the Fed's rate outlook and/or comments from Fed Chair Powell during the press conference t...

Fri, December 13, 10:53 PM

Fed Will Cut Next Week, But They're Not Cutting Mortgage Rates - Fri, December 13, 10:53 PM

Mortgage rates spent 5 out of 5 days moving higher this week. Frustratingly, the damage wasn't readily linked to normal motivations like stronger economic data or higher inflation. It serve...

Fri, December 6, 9:24 PM

Waiting Game is Over and Rates Are Moving - Fri, December 6, 9:24 PM

As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they passed the test. The jobs report (of...

Fri, November 22, 11:21 PM

Rates and Housing Back in The Waiting Game - Fri, November 22, 11:21 PM

After embarking on a volatile journey in early October, the past 2 weeks have been calmer for mortgage rates. The present week was especially uneventful relative to the past 2 months. ...

Fri, November 15, 8:37 PM

Are Rates Done Freaking Out Yet? - Fri, November 15, 8:37 PM

Mortgage rates bounced hard off the long term lows back in September and had jumped almost a full percent by last week. In addition to the elevated levels, there's been plenty of volatility. None...

Fri, November 8, 10:19 PM

How The Election and The Fed Impacted Rates - Fri, November 8, 10:19 PM

Mortgage rates spent the entire month of October moving higher at a fairly quick pace. Some of that had to do with stronger economic data, but at least as much had to do with the bond market (bon...

Fri, November 1, 8:03 PM

Rates Refuse to Drop Ahead of Election. How About After? - Fri, November 1, 8:03 PM

This newsletter strictly avoids politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for housing and rates. Now is clearly one of those times. The discu...

Fri, October 25, 6:33 PM

November Volatility Shows Up Early And Next Week Could Be Even Crazier - Fri, October 25, 6:33 PM

Last week's newsletter warned that it was time to start thinking about incredibly high volatility potential due to events in the first few days of November. But as far as interest rates are conce...

Fri, October 18, 10:16 PM

Time to Start Thinking About Incredibly High Volatility Potential - Fri, October 18, 10:16 PM

This newsletter series spent 3 straight weeks trying to remind readers that mortgage rates could go higher after the Fed rate cut, and then several more weeks warning about the high stakes j...

Fri, October 11, 7:25 PM

Lots of Confusion About Recent Rate Movement. Let's Clear it up - Fri, October 11, 7:25 PM

It's been frustrating and potentially confusing to see mortgage rates move consistently higher after the Fed's September 18th rate cut, but the Fed has nothing to do with the big rate spike of th...

Fri, October 4, 10:31 PM

Huge Rate Bounce After Stunningly Strong Jobs Report - Fri, October 4, 10:31 PM

There was a lot riding on Friday's big jobs report with a weak result likely to reinvigorate a move to long-term lows and a strong result likely to push rates higher. It ended up being VERY stron...

Fri, September 27, 8:59 PM

Refi Booms, Loan Limits, and Mortgage Rate Misdirection - Fri, September 27, 8:59 PM

'Tis the season for things to be something other than what they appear to be, apparently. Lenders are talking about new loan limits, but they haven't officially changed. News stories are saying r...

Fri, September 20, 7:41 PM

Why The Fed Rate Cut Didn't Help Mortgage Rates This Week - Fri, September 20, 7:41 PM

This week's newsletter will be intentionally short in hopes of it being easier to share, read, and digest. It will offer several strategies for understanding the paradoxical disconnect between th...

Fri, September 13, 7:53 PM

Why Fed Day Matters Even Though Mortgage Rates Are Already Lower - Fri, September 13, 7:53 PM

It's a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be cutting rates on Wednesday, September 18th. As exciting as they might sound, mortgage rates have already reaped the rewards. If...

Fri, September 6, 8:15 PM

Why You Might Regret Waiting For Better Rates After The Fed Cuts - Fri, September 6, 8:15 PM

This week's labor market data and Fed speeches solidified the case for the Fed to cut rates by at least 0.25% when it meets in 2 weeks. With more and more buzz surrounding that rate cut, it...

Fri, August 30, 7:35 PM

Here's Exactly What a Fed Rate Cut Will Do For Mortgage Rates - Fri, August 30, 7:35 PM

It's still just over 3 weeks away, but questions are already ramping up regarding the impact of the Fed's rate cut on mortgage rates. Here is exactly what the rate cut itself will do: NOTHI...

Fri, August 23, 9:15 PM

Powell Puts a Lid on The Rate Debate, But Where's The Bottom? - Fri, August 23, 9:15 PM

Every year, the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") gathers in Jackson Hole, WY with a bevy of other central bankers and academics to discuss and comment on monetary policy in a setting that's slight...

Fri, August 16, 9:15 PM

Refi Demand Exploded (Relatively), But Rates Are Settling (For Now) - Fri, August 16, 9:15 PM

There's been widespread speculation as to the effect that falling rates will have on refinance demand in a world where 2/3rds of mortgages have rates under 4%. This week's data suggests it's wort...

Fri, August 9, 10:22 PM

Rates End Week Higher After Massive Volatility - Fri, August 9, 10:22 PM

This week alone, mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in well over a year and moved higher at their 3rd fastest pace in nearly 2 years. Monday morning began with global financial marke...

Fri, August 2, 9:42 PM

Rates Plummet as The Market Buys Into The Big Shift - Fri, August 2, 9:42 PM

The events of this past week serve as an exclamation point in one of the many sentences that tells the story of the big shift away from the generationally high rates seen at the end of 2023. ...

Fri, July 26, 9:36 PM

Inflation Data Continues Paving The Way For (Eventual) Rate Cuts - Fri, July 26, 9:36 PM

This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to see rates drop, it was important for PCE to c...

Fri, July 19, 9:02 PM

Very Calm Week For Rates, Despite Hitting New 6 Month Low - Fri, July 19, 9:02 PM

While much of this week's news cycle was focused on politics, it was business as usual for the bond market and interest rates. At this time of year, that business often involves a lack of major m...

Fri, July 12, 8:22 PM

Sharply Lower Inflation Brings Fed Rate Cuts Into Focus - Fri, July 12, 8:22 PM

There was a lot riding on this week's economic data and it delivered in a big way. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has had the biggest influence on interest rates of any of the scheduled mon...

Fri, July 5, 9:36 PM

Economic Data Building a Case For Rate Cuts - Fri, July 5, 9:36 PM

It may have been a shorter week than normal due to the holiday, but it was no less important with several economic reports adding to the case for rate cuts. The first week of any given month t...

Fri, June 28, 9:54 PM

Slow Start for Rates Gives Way to Volatility With More to Come Next Week - Fri, June 28, 9:54 PM

The week began with a distinct absence of interest rate volatility, but things changed in a big way by Friday--at least compared to the previous week which was exceptionally quiet. ...

Fri, June 21, 8:36 PM

June Shaping Up Nicely, But Bigger Tests Are Yet to Come - Fri, June 21, 8:36 PM

After a rocky start to the year, things began to improve for rates and the inflation outlook in May. June took the improvement to the next level, but this week didn't affect the bigger picture. ...

Fri, June 14, 7:14 PM

Big Inflation Victory Gets Rates Back to Lowest Levels Since March - Fri, June 14, 7:14 PM

This week was hotly anticipated by investors due to the confluence of economic data and events. Depending on the outcome, interest rates stood to gain or lose quite a bit of ground. Thankfu...

Fri, June 7, 7:31 PM

Wild Week in Response to Economic Data And There's More On The Way - Fri, June 7, 7:31 PM

The bond market (and therefore interest rates) came into the current week with a bit of a bias. Even after accounting for other variables, there was a predisposition to focus on d...

Fri, May 31, 7:58 PM

Plenty of Rate Volatility Despite Holiday-Shortened Week - Fri, May 31, 7:58 PM

This week got off to a late start as markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Upon returning to the office, traders began pushing rates higher almost immediately. It's often said that t...

Fri, May 24, 6:42 PM

The Fed is No Longer Eager to Cut Rates And The Market Knows It - Fri, May 24, 6:42 PM

It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market thought it already knew. Specifically,...

Fri, May 17, 9:32 PM

Hotly Anticipated Inflation Data Keeps Hope Alive - Fri, May 17, 9:32 PM

As long as inflation is the top concern for financial markets, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report on any given month and it came out this week. Stocks and b...

Fri, May 10, 7:44 PM

The Upcoming Week Will Be Significantly More Volatile - Fri, May 10, 7:44 PM

In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, but this time is an exception. While we can...

Fri, May 3, 8:40 PM

Despite Bigger Bumps, Fed Still Sees Path to Lower Rates - Fri, May 3, 8:40 PM

It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic reports that caused rate volatility. Thankfully,...

Fri, April 26, 8:59 PM

Expect Tougher Talk From The Fed After This Week's Inflation Data - Fri, April 26, 8:59 PM

As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected. Rates&...

Fri, April 19, 8:09 PM

The Case of The Disappearing Rate Cuts - Fri, April 19, 8:09 PM

The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune. This ...

Fri, April 12, 9:44 PM

Rates Rocked by Inflation Data - Fri, April 12, 9:44 PM

If there was only one thing to know about the mortgage market this week, it would be that Wednesday's inflation data prompted one of biggest single day increases in mortgage rates in decades. If ...

Fri, April 5, 9:32 PM

Reasonably Resilient Rates Waiting to See Wednesday's Inflation Data - Fri, April 5, 9:32 PM

Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future pat...

Thu, March 28, 7:00 PM

Tame Week For Rates and Housing Data, But Change is Coming - Thu, March 28, 7:00 PM

With markets only open 3.5 days and without any top tier economic reports to influence rates, this week could have arguably been viewed as a 9 day weekend for traders. In fact, despite some...

Fri, March 22, 9:14 PM

Fed Surprisingly Calm on Inflation Risk; Home Sales Improve - Fri, March 22, 9:14 PM

This week's main event was Wednesday's Fed announcement, or more specifically, the dot plot. What's a dot plot? 4 times a year, the Fed releases its best guess of where the Fed Funds Rate w...