Weekly Newsletter Archive

Fri, 8:38 PM

The Fed is Cutting Rates Next Week, But Not Mortgage Rates - Fri, 8:38 PM

Markets have settled into a cycle that favors the jobs report as the only critical economic data as far as rates are concerned. This week's inflation data had a chance to claim/preserve a role as...

Fri, September 5, 8:15 PM

Job Count and Mortgage Rates Go Cliff-Diving - Fri, September 5, 8:15 PM

Rates actually began the week with a modest move higher for a variety of boring, technical reasons that no one will remember or care about after seeing how things ended up on Friday. The move ...

Fri, August 29, 8:10 PM

Calm Before the Storm: Rates Drift to 11-Month Lows Ahead of Critical Jobs Report - Fri, August 29, 8:10 PM

This past week was a classic placeholder for mortgage rates. With no big-ticket reports on the calendar, volatility stayed about as low as it gets. But even without fireworks, the market quietly ...

Fri, August 22, 9:16 PM

Powell's Speech Greased The Skids For Rates to Slide to 2025 Lows - Fri, August 22, 9:16 PM

If you read nothing else below, read this: people are talking about stronger odds of a Fed rate cut in September. Some people assume this means mortgage rates would move lower after that potentia...

Fri, August 15, 7:13 PM

Mortgage Rates Hit 10-Month Lows — Here’s Why a Fed Cut Might Not Help - Fri, August 15, 7:13 PM

Inflation data was in focus this week, with one major report helping mortgage rates officially hit new 10-month lows before the 2nd report pushed back in the other direction. The biggest ...

Fri, August 8, 7:09 PM

Calmly Holding the Lowest Rates Since October, But for How Long? - Fri, August 8, 7:09 PM

Last Friday's jobs report sparked a big rally in the bond market, and thus a big improvement for mortgage rates. This week was very light in terms of market data and volatility, but it help...

Fri, August 1, 8:37 PM

The Jobs Report Was a Mess—Mortgage Rates Loved It - Fri, August 1, 8:37 PM

Last week, we said all bets were off until we saw Friday’s jobs report—and that no other piece of economic data moves mortgage rates more reliably. This week proved why that warning i...

Fri, July 25, 7:45 PM

From Snooze to Surge: Big Data Week Could Rock Mortgage Rates - Fri, July 25, 7:45 PM

Mortgage rates ended the week at exactly the same levels as last Friday on average. This isn't too surprising given the extremely light and inconsequential nature of this week's sched...

Fri, July 18, 9:00 PM

Mixed Inflation Data Overshadowed by Headline Drama - Fri, July 18, 9:00 PM

It was a hotly anticipated week, mainly due to the scheduled release of important inflation data on Tuesday, but the rate market almost got more than it bargained for thanks to unexpected headlin...

Fri, July 11, 8:53 PM

After Holiday Hangover, Rates Are Ready to Get Serious About Inflation Data - Fri, July 11, 8:53 PM

Mortgage rates partied hard for most of June and into the middle of last week--right up until stronger economic data killed the vibe. The resulting bounce in rates carried momentum through to the...

Thu, July 3, 6:54 PM

Rates Take a Breather After Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report - Thu, July 3, 6:54 PM

After a few good weeks for interest rates, things hit a bit of a speed bump this week thanks to a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The week started quietly. There was no important economic ...

Fri, June 27, 7:05 PM

Rates Closing in on 8 Month Lows - Fri, June 27, 7:05 PM

After going to great lengths to explain why the Fed Funds Rate isn't the same as mortgage rates, we'll now have to discuss how the Fed nonetheless found a way to push rates lower this week. We...

Fri, June 20, 8:47 PM

Fed Holds Steady; Mortgage Rates Fall - Fri, June 20, 8:47 PM

This week ended up being underwhelming in terms of interest rate movement despite the much-anticipated Fed announcement on Wednesday. Anticipation aside, there was zero chance of a rate cut at...

Fri, June 13, 7:09 PM

Good News on Inflation, But Don't Expect a Fed Rate Cut - Fri, June 13, 7:09 PM

The juxtaposition of last week's jobs report and this week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) created a fair amount of volatility, but for fans of low mortgage rates, it's too soon to care. Whether ...

Fri, June 6, 8:47 PM

Jobs Report Chases Rates Back Into The Range - Fri, June 6, 8:47 PM

For nearly 2 months, rates have been in limbo, stuck between the lower, more stable levels seen in March and the higher range seen at the beginning of the year. With many market participants wait...

Fri, May 30, 10:58 PM

Calmer, Friendlier Week For Rates Amid Mixed Signals For Housing - Fri, May 30, 10:58 PM

In addition to being shorter than normal due to the Memorial Day holiday, there wasn't much meat on this week's event calendar--at least not as far as the rate market was concerned. Earnings rele...

Fri, May 23, 8:14 PM

Rates Back to 7%. What Will It Take For Them to Drop? - Fri, May 23, 8:14 PM

Markets began the week with a hangover from last Friday's late-day announcement of a US credit rating downgrade from Moody's with both stocks and bonds losing ground in early trading. Wh...

Fri, May 16, 11:10 PM

Some Uncertainty at The End of an Otherwise Decent Week - Fri, May 16, 11:10 PM

The week began with some challenges for the rate market and a bounce for stocks following the US/China trade deal over the weekend. Stocks held their gains, but rates managed to move back down by...

Fri, May 9, 10:11 PM

Fed Rate Expectations Have Fully Erased The Tariff Impact (For Now) - Fri, May 9, 10:11 PM

The market is constantly making bets on where the Fed Funds Rate will end up for any given moment many months into the future. As such, that rate expectation is constantly changing. It will conti...

Fri, May 2, 9:09 PM

Rates Move Up After Stronger Economic Data - Fri, May 2, 9:09 PM

Whether you refer to it as "strong," or "not as bad as feared," this week's economic reports were better than the market was prepared for. The result is moderately higher rates. Interest rates...

Fri, April 25, 10:08 PM

Markets Calmed Down Immensely This Week. Lowest Rates since April 7th - Fri, April 25, 10:08 PM

Please note that this newsletter is fiercely apolitical. There is no judgment on whether any given political development is good or bad. We are only interested in how financial and housing market...

Thu, April 17, 8:30 PM

Mortgage Rates Are Actually Much Lower This Week - Thu, April 17, 8:30 PM

Last week, there was a curious, but not uncommon juxtaposition of widespread headlines claiming "lower mortgage rates" and our own headlines suggesting one of the biggest weekly jumps in years.&n...

Fri, April 11, 10:33 PM

Biggest Weekly Jump For Rates In Quite a While. Will it Keep Going or Calm Down? - Fri, April 11, 10:33 PM

Whether we're talking about mortgage rates or a quintessential yard stick of the rate world like the 10yr Treasury yield, it was the roughest week in quite a while. Nearly every corner o...

Fri, April 4, 8:29 PM

Lowest Rates Since October as Tariffs Spark Staggering Volatility - Fri, April 4, 8:29 PM

It was a great week for fans of chaos, volatility, and low interest rates as all 3 were delivered in spades. Despite the presence of several big ticket economic reports, the catalyst was Wednesda...

Fri, March 28, 10:21 PM

Inflation Told Rates to Rise. Rates Didn't Listen - Fri, March 28, 10:21 PM

Heading into the week, market watchers knew (or thought they knew) that Friday's PCE inflation data had a chance to help or hurt interest rates more than any other economic report. Whe...

Fri, March 21, 10:18 PM

If The Fed Didn't Cut Rates This Week, Why Did Rates Fall? - Fri, March 21, 10:18 PM

Interest rates improved fairly steadily throughout the week with the biggest drop seen after Wednesday's Fed announcement. The Fed didn't cut rates, nor was any rational person expecting them to ...

Fri, March 14, 8:42 PM

Interest Rates Had a Boring Week, And That's a Good Thing - Fri, March 14, 8:42 PM

Rates rocketed lower with stunning consistency starting in late February. They finally bounced last week, but rather than move back up to previous levels, they held in a relatively narrow, sidewa...

Fri, March 7, 10:10 PM

The Secret Reason That Rates Bounced This Week - Fri, March 7, 10:10 PM

There's a lot for financial markets to digest at the moment. Over the past few weeks, the net effect of that digestion has been good for bonds/rates and bad for stocks. But the prevailing correla...

Fri, February 28, 10:07 PM

Mortgage Rates Closing in on 4 Month Lows - Fri, February 28, 10:07 PM

Rates have been almost perfectly consistent in moving lower since February 13th and broadly consistent since January 15th. There's one big reason for that and it's simpler than you might think. ...

Fri, February 21, 9:33 PM

Lowest Rates in 2 Months. Was it The Fed or Econ Data? - Fri, February 21, 9:33 PM

It ended up being another good week for rates with another Friday drop to the lowest levels in 2 months. Momentum shifted for the better after Wednesday's Fed Minutes but accelerated quickly afte...

Fri, February 14, 9:30 PM

The Unlikely Story of Mortgage Rates Falling to 2 Month Lows Despite Higher Inflation - Fri, February 14, 9:30 PM

The final two days of the present week weren't on many bingo cards as of Wednesday afternoon. At the time, rates were jumping higher in response to inflation data. That same morning, ...

Fri, February 7, 5:54 PM

Despite Apparent Volatility, Rates Have Been Surprisingly Calm - Fri, February 7, 5:54 PM

It would be more than fair to expect elevated market volatility based on the quantity and tone of recent news headlines. But the market remains more focused on the hard data. This isn't to say...

Fri, January 31, 9:32 PM

Bonds Brace For Tariff Impact, Just Like Last Time - Fri, January 31, 9:32 PM

Spoiler alert: no one really knows how tariffs are going to impact the market yet. Much is left to be decided, and the outcomes can vary depending on the details. Markets were certainly willin...

Fri, January 24, 11:01 PM

Can Trump Actually Force Rates to Move Lower? - Fri, January 24, 11:01 PM

It turned out to be an intensely boring week for mortgage rates. The average lender stayed right in line with last week until moving slightly higher on Thursday and slightly lower on Friday. ...

Fri, January 17, 11:23 PM

Rates Recover After Tame Inflation Data - Fri, January 17, 11:23 PM

Last week's big to-do was the jobs report, which sent rates sharply higher. This week's inflation data had a chance to add fuel to that fire or put it out. The inflation report in question was...

Fri, January 10, 10:39 PM

Highest Mortgage Rates in 7 Months After Upbeat Jobs Report - Fri, January 10, 10:39 PM

Mortgage rates weren't having a great week in the first place. As of Wednesday, the average lender was already up to the highest levels since June 2024. But up until that point, there...

Fri, January 3, 10:31 PM

Mortgage Rates' Holiday Break Ends With Next Week's Economic Data - Fri, January 3, 10:31 PM

Even as most of the world has spent the past two days thinking or saying "I can't believe it's 2025 already," mortgage rates won't get back from vacation until next week. They managed to ma...

Fri, December 27, 9:15 PM

Let's Try Something New For 2025 - Fri, December 27, 9:15 PM

"So long 2024. Don't let the door hit ya!" Or... "another year closer to turning a longer-term corner in the housing market." For better or worse, 2024 was a lot more like 2023 than most housing/...

Fri, December 20, 8:58 PM

Once Again, Mortgage Rates Shoot Higher After a Fed Rate Cut - Fri, December 20, 8:58 PM

"If anything on Fed day ends up having an impact on mortgage rates, it would have to be changes in the Fed's rate outlook and/or comments from Fed Chair Powell during the press conference t...

Fri, December 13, 10:53 PM

Fed Will Cut Next Week, But They're Not Cutting Mortgage Rates - Fri, December 13, 10:53 PM

Mortgage rates spent 5 out of 5 days moving higher this week. Frustratingly, the damage wasn't readily linked to normal motivations like stronger economic data or higher inflation. It serve...

Fri, December 6, 9:24 PM

Waiting Game is Over and Rates Are Moving - Fri, December 6, 9:24 PM

As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they passed the test. The jobs report (of...

Fri, November 22, 11:21 PM

Rates and Housing Back in The Waiting Game - Fri, November 22, 11:21 PM

After embarking on a volatile journey in early October, the past 2 weeks have been calmer for mortgage rates. The present week was especially uneventful relative to the past 2 months. ...

Fri, November 15, 8:37 PM

Are Rates Done Freaking Out Yet? - Fri, November 15, 8:37 PM

Mortgage rates bounced hard off the long term lows back in September and had jumped almost a full percent by last week. In addition to the elevated levels, there's been plenty of volatility. None...

Fri, November 8, 10:19 PM

How The Election and The Fed Impacted Rates - Fri, November 8, 10:19 PM

Mortgage rates spent the entire month of October moving higher at a fairly quick pace. Some of that had to do with stronger economic data, but at least as much had to do with the bond market (bon...

Fri, November 1, 8:03 PM

Rates Refuse to Drop Ahead of Election. How About After? - Fri, November 1, 8:03 PM

This newsletter strictly avoids politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for housing and rates. Now is clearly one of those times. The discu...

Fri, October 25, 6:33 PM

November Volatility Shows Up Early And Next Week Could Be Even Crazier - Fri, October 25, 6:33 PM

Last week's newsletter warned that it was time to start thinking about incredibly high volatility potential due to events in the first few days of November. But as far as interest rates are conce...

Fri, October 18, 10:16 PM

Time to Start Thinking About Incredibly High Volatility Potential - Fri, October 18, 10:16 PM

This newsletter series spent 3 straight weeks trying to remind readers that mortgage rates could go higher after the Fed rate cut, and then several more weeks warning about the high stakes j...

Fri, October 11, 7:25 PM

Lots of Confusion About Recent Rate Movement. Let's Clear it up - Fri, October 11, 7:25 PM

It's been frustrating and potentially confusing to see mortgage rates move consistently higher after the Fed's September 18th rate cut, but the Fed has nothing to do with the big rate spike of th...

Fri, October 4, 10:31 PM

Huge Rate Bounce After Stunningly Strong Jobs Report - Fri, October 4, 10:31 PM

There was a lot riding on Friday's big jobs report with a weak result likely to reinvigorate a move to long-term lows and a strong result likely to push rates higher. It ended up being VERY stron...

Fri, September 27, 8:59 PM

Refi Booms, Loan Limits, and Mortgage Rate Misdirection - Fri, September 27, 8:59 PM

'Tis the season for things to be something other than what they appear to be, apparently. Lenders are talking about new loan limits, but they haven't officially changed. News stories are saying r...