Losing ground after Treasury released higher preliminary borrowing estimates with the 3pm quarterly refunding documents. U.S. TREASURY ESTIMATES $739 BLN IN PRIVATELY HELD NET MARKETABLE BORROWING FOR JULY-SEPTEMBER 2026, ASSUMING AN END-SEPTEMBER CASH BALANCE OF $950 BLN, $68 BLN HIGHER THAN PROJECTED IN MAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWER EXPECTED NET CASH FLOWS
For most lenders, unless you've already seen a positive reprice, this will be more of a heads-up than a true alert.
MBS are still up 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but down 5 ticks (.16) from the highs. Lenders who repriced for the better so far today are seeing about an eighth of a point of weakness. Only the jumpiest lenders would be considering negative reprices.
That said, the trend is negative at the moment and other lenders could be at risk if we lose a few more ticks.