Dan Beam
SVP - Director Residential Lending
Firstrust Bank
MBS & US Treasury Markets
10/22 5:50:00PM EST : Delayed Data

Think back to October 17th. MBS opened slightly weaker and ended the day down about an eighth of a point.  That was the last time we had a weaker start, and there are some parallels to today. In both cases, the weakness was modest. In both cases, the previous session closed at the best levels in at least a month.  In fact, yesterday's 5.0 MBS prices matched their best close in over a year.  We can definitely forgive (and possibly even expect) a small pull-back after such a consistent rally. As discussed in yesterday's video, it was beginning to seem like a good moment for broader consolidation.

20251022 open.png

20251022 open3.png

20251022 open2.png

And a bonus chart in light of yesterday's discussion of oil prices...  Clearly not a 1:1 correlation, but fans of the oil/Treasury connection could at least say the rebound is not doing us any favors.

20251022 open4.png

10:33 AM

Losing some ground after opening stronger.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.5bps at 3.974

01:52 PM

Decent recovery after 20yr auction.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 3.952

03:33 PM

Just off best levels.  MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1.5bps at 3.955

Dan Beam
SVP - Director Residential Lending
Firstrust Bank