MBS & US Treasury Markets
2/26 4:15:40PM EST : Delayed Data

This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they're challenging the lowest levels since November. Any time we're at the best levels in months, it's normal to want to know why, but because of the narrow range, there isn't really a new "why" for today's share of the move. After all, 10yr yields are down less than 3bps, which is a below average move in the big picture. We can't blame data as there isn't a compelling option there. If we're still desperate for a scapegoat, it may not be perfect, but there is enough correlation with the stock market's struggle to make new highs that we can at least consider it.

Today's chart shows how stocks have slipped from all-time highs and how bonds have benefited with every instance of significant slippage.

20260226 open.png

The 2nd chart is just for bigger picture perspective. 

20260226 open2.png

08:36 AM

Choppy and sideways overnight, but in a narrow range. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.039

01:10 PM

MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.019

02:21 PM

MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.024

03:52 PM

best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.01