Gregory Richardson
EVP - Capital Markets
Primis Mortgage Company
MBS & US Treasury Markets
3/19 7:31:00PM EST : Delayed Data

The previous post-Fed update focused on the dot plot, but the before and after chart was not accurate.  This is the real version, and much more in line with our expectations for a 'light shuffling' of dots.  

20250319 DOTS.png

This would imply the market movement motivation is instead coming from the announcement of the Fed tapering the quantitative tightening in Treasuries.  In other words, they will be able to reinvest more of the balance sheet proceeds that had previously been running off into the void.  Simplest brass tacks: the Fed can buy more bonds.

10:34 AM

Roughly unchanged overnight and slightly weaker in the past hour. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.302

01:00 PM

Sideways since the last update.  MBS down 3 ticks on the day and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.311

02:25 PM

Stronger after Fed announcement (greatly slowing the pace of Treasury tightening).  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.274

03:41 PM

Holding gains after Powell press conference.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.253

Gregory Richardson
EVP - Capital Markets
Primis Mortgage Company